It is week 15, and the Gold Cup is on our doorstep. Many teams will need to navigate their lineups with players leaving to play for their national teams. FC Cincinnati has four players that will most likely be unavailable in Kendall Waston (Costa Rica), Allan Cruz (Costa Rica), Alvas Powell (Jamaica), and Darren Mattocks (Jamaica) all participating in the Gold Cup.
Projected Season Points
Here are the current tiers:
Tier 1 – Los Angeles FC (by a large amount)
Tier 2 – Atlanta, Seattle, Philadelphia, Hoston, New York Red Bulls, LA Galaxy, DC United, New York City FC
Tier 3 – Dallas, Minnesota, Orlando, Toronto, Chicago, Salt Lake
Tier 4 – San Jose, Vancouver, Montreal, Kansas City
Tier 5 – The Rest— FC Cincinnati and Columbus are here
Some of the big changes this week:
Look at who is sitting in second in the projected standings. Atlanta has quickly found its rhythm by becoming the No. 1 defense in the league while having a less than stellar offense, a road map FC Cincinnati was trying to utilize.
The number of teams in the second tier shows just how wide open the league is outside of LAFC. The East is up for grabs with five teams currently capable of grabbing the top spot (Atlanta, Philadelphia, NY Red Bulls, DC United, and NYCFC).
Orlando is slowly creeping up the projected points table. It appears James O’Connor has this team heading in the right direction.
The state of Ohio is in bad shape when it comes to MLS. Both Columbus and Cincinnati are struggling to find points. At this rate “Hell is Real” derby may just be a Hellish game.
PREDICTED SCORES
Last week the formula correctly predicted nine wins and missed on the other eight games. Note: Things the formula cannot take into consideration are injuries, weather, fatigue, and international duty. It is based solely on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency when compared to the league’s average offensive and defensive efficiency.
HERE ARE THIS WEEK’S SCORES:
I made a slight change to the predicted scoring formula. I added a recent form component, in which I look at teams’ last five games and give a 30% weight to that. This aspect helps a team that is performing better recently when compared to their season form. Their goals for and against will improve.
Running Total for Predicted Scores (started week 5 of the season):
- 53 correct – 75 incorrect (41.4% all games)
- 45 correct – 57 incorrect (44.1% removing three closest predicted games of the week)
- Not removing three games this week because there are so few
QUICK HITS:
- Limited Schedule with only six MLS games on slate due to the international break, June 14- July 19 (Gold Cup in North America).
- The best offensive option is Minnesota with the second best being the team they play against Colorado.
- The best defensive options are from NYCFC and Seattle. Only Cincinnati and Montreal are projected to get Shutout this week.
- For more in-depth Fantasy Coverage listen to the On The Bounce podcast, produced locally here in Cincinnati.
GROWLER CUP:
For FC Cincinnati’s game versus New York City FC, below are the score lines broken down by percentages. Reminder, this is based on teams playing at full strength and under ideal conditions.
TAKEAWAYS:
- Top five most likely scores in order: NYFC Win 1-0, Draw 0-0, NYFC Win 2-0, Draw 1-1, FCC Win 1-0
- FC Cincinnati has an 11% chance of winning and a 35% chance of a draw.
- FC Cincinnati being shutout is at 72%, while New York has a 36% chance of being shutout.
- New York has the 15th-ranked offense and the seventh-ranked defense in MLS.
- FCC has the 24th-ranked offense and the 21st-ranked defense in MLS.
- Using Current Form (Last Five games) the projected Score has NYFC 2.75 – o.46 FCC
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