It is week 13, and teams are slowly settling into their place within MLS. Now with the Gold Cup on the horizon and the FIFA summer transfer window, teams can be thrown into a tailspin or come out like a rocket (see DC United last year). The home town team is in need of some direction and potentially some new blood. Bobby Warshaw told Cincinnati Soccer Talk this week that FC Cincinnati appeared to be getting the basics worked on by temporary manager, Yohann Damet, something that should have occurred in the preseason. Hopefully we see development this week against New York Red Bulls.
Projected Season Points
Here are the current tiers:
Tier 1 – Los Angeles FC (by a large amount)
Tier 2 – Hoston, Seattle, Philadelphia, DC United, New York City FC
Tier 3 – Atlanta, Minnesota, Toronto, LA Galaxy, New York Red Bulls
Tier 4 – Dallas, Salt Lake, Chicago, Montreal, Orlando
Tier 5 – Kansas City thru Colorado — FC Cincinnati is here
Some of the big changes this week:
Real Salt Lake with the biggest increase improving almost six pts to 45.6 pts.
Toronto was the big loser this week dropping almost six points to 49.8 pts. FC Cincinnati and Columbus are both struggling separated by roughly 4.75pts.
Last week I asked, “Is Sporting Kansas City in trouble?” The answer is yes. Injuries and poor defensive performances have this team in a nosedive.
PREDICTED SCORES
Last week the formula correctly predicted eight wins and missed on the other eight games. Note: Things the formula cannot take into consideration are injuries, weather, fatigue and international duty. It is based solely on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency when compared to the league’s average offensive and defensive efficiency.
HERE ARE THIS WEEK’S SCORES:
I made a slight change to the predicted scoring formula. I added a recent form component, in which I look at teams’ last five games and give a 30% weight to that. This aspect helps a team that is performing better recently when compared to their season form. Their goals for and against will improve.
Running Total for Predicted Scores (started week 5 of the season):
- 44 correct – 67 incorrect (39.6% all games)
- 36 correct – 52 incorrect (40.9% removing three closest predicted games of the week)
- The three games the formula says to stay away from are Vancouver vs Dallas, Chicago vs NYCFC and Minnesota vs Houston
QUICK HITS:
- Only two teams have double game weeks, New York Red Bulls and Vancouver. There are some good options from these teams but not really the strongest.
- The best offensive option is the Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC. However Toronto is going to be without Alejandro Pozuelo.
- The best defensive options are from LAFC and DC United. Eight matches are estimated to have a team without scoring a single goal.
- For more in-depth Fantasy Coverage listen to the On The Bounce podcast, produced locally here in Cincinnati.
GROWLER CUP:
For FC Cincinnati’s game versus the New York Red Bulls, below are the score lines broken down by percentages. Reminder, this is based on teams playing at full strength and under ideal conditions.
TAKEAWAYS:
- Top five most likely scores in order: NYRB Win 1-0, Draw 1-1, Draw 0-0, NYRB Win 2-0, FCC Win 1-0
- FC Cincinnati has a 23% chance of winning and a 27% chance of a draw.
- FC Cincinnati being shutout is at 41%, while New York has a 24% chance of being shutout.
- New York has the 12th-ranked offense and the eighth-ranked defense in MLS.
- FCC has the 24th-ranked offense and the 19th-ranked defense in MLS.
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