Week 11 MLS Score Predictions

Ken predicts the outcome of this week’s MLS matches and lists the probabilities for FC Cincinnati’s likely score.


This week has been rough for FC Cincinnati fans but the previous week was gut-wrenching for the direction of the club. A  week that saw the club lose two games ended with Alan Koch losing his managerial position after only eleven games into the inaugural season.  The fan base was divided on this decision but some of the numbers seem to back the clubs decision and even though the reasons behind those numbers don’t all fall on Koch’s shoulders, he is the one who bore the brunt.

Clearly, FC Cincinnati is not heading in the direction they want, last week they had a projected Season Point Total of  31 points and they have now fallen to 28 projected points.  Only above New England and Colorado. This puts the Orange and Blue in 11th place in the East.

Here are the current tiers:

Tier 1 – Los Angeles FC, Houston
Tier 2 – Toronto, Seattle, DC United, LA Galaxy, Philadelphia
Tier 3 – Dallas, Atlanta, New York City FC, Minnesota, Chicago, Montreal
Tier 4 –  Orlando, Columbus, SKC, New York Red Bulls
Tier 5 –  San Jose thru Colorado   —  FC Cincinnati is here

Some of the big changes this week:
Atlanta has jumped significantly after finding some offense. Sporting Kansas City is in a free fall.



Last week the formula correctly predicted six wins but missed on the remaining 11 games. This is about par for guessing — 33% — but not as well as I would have anticipated.  The fact there was a large number of teams playing twice in the week contributes to the difficulties in prediction. But that should even out when the weekend games had two teams that had already played once. NoteThings the formula cannot take into consideration are injuries, weather, fatigue, and international duty.

It is based solely on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency when compared to the league’s average offensive and defensive efficiency.


Running Total for Predicted Scores (started week 5 of the season):

  • 30 correct – 51 incorrect (37% all games)
  • 24 correct – 39 incorrect (38.1% removing three closest predicted games of the week)
  • The three games the formula says to stay away from Atalanta vs Toronto, Atlanta vs Orlando, and New York Red Bulls vs Montreal.


  • Eight teams had double game weeks and your fantasy team should be comprised mostly of players from these teams Chicago, Atlanta, New England, Toronto, Columbus, LA Galaxy, New York Red Bulls, and Montreal.
  • Best Offensive options are Chicago who goes up against New England and Minnesota this week. Toronto should also have a good offensive showing over a two-game period.
  • Best Defensive options are probably from Atlanta, but most teams with double games only have one game where they are predicted to do well with Atlanta being the most likely to do well.  For single game teams look at Dallas, San Jose, and LAFC
  • For more in-depth Fantasy Coverage listen to the On The Bounce podcast, produced locally here in Cincinnati.

For FC Cincinnati’s game versus the Montreal Impact, below are the score lines broken down by percentages. Reminder, this is based on teams playing at full strength and under ideal conditions.


  • Top five most likely scores in order: Montreal Win 1-0, Draw 1-1, Montreal Win 2-0, Montreal Win 2-1, Draw 0-0.
  • FC Cincinnati has a 23 percent chance of winning and an 18 percent chance of a draw.
  • FC Cincy being shutout is at 38 percent, while Montreal has a 20 percent chance of being shutout.
  • Montreal has the 20th-ranked offense and the 14th-ranked defense in MLS.
  • FCC has the 24th-ranked offense and the 15th-ranked defense in MLS.
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