Last week the score predictions correctly predicted three wins but missed on the remaining eight games. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t. This week it did not. This week on the MLS podcast Extratime, they stated, “MLS is predictably unpredictable” and that is what I will take away from this week. The three games that were stated to stay away from this past week all were losses in my overall record. Again it is early in the season, and the application of the formula needs a little more data to become better at estimating the predicted scores. Week nine is about when there is enough data to start honing the results.
Note: Things the formula cannot take into consideration are injuries, weather, fatigue and international duty.
It is based solely on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency when compared to the league’s average offensive and defensive efficiency.
Here are this week’s scores:
Running Total for Predicted Scores (started week 5 of the season):
- Nine correct – 14 incorrect (39.1% all games)
- Nine correct – eight incorrect (52.9% removing three closest predicted games of the week)
- The three games the formula says to stay away from New England vs Atlanta, Seattle vs. Toronto, and Chicago vs. Vancouver.
- DC United vs Montreal doesn’t seem like a good pick, especially without Wayne Rooney.
- Sporting Kansas City also has another mid-week game in Concacaf Champions League. How does that impact their Sunday match vs. New York Red Bulls?
Quick Hits:
- Houston vs San Jose is the biggest mismatch, followed by closely Colorado vs Seattle. Seattle has two matches this week, making the selections of its players a little more enticing. The short turn around between the Sounders’ two games may force them to rotate, but I think they are worth the risk. *Note: Colorado vs Seattle was canceled due to weather.
- After Houston and Seattle, Dallas is predicted to have the next largest offensive output. The team from the lone star state has the struggling Portland Timbers coming into town. Portland currently is the worst defensive team in the league. When does it sort it out? Is Giovanni Savarese starting to lose this team? I think the Dallas defense may be the smarter play here. *Note: Sounders’ starters only have Toronto FC match now. Toronto backline is flaky so they may still be a good selection, but I would look elsewhere.
- On the defensive side, New England is predicted to not concede. However, they are not predicted to score either. I am not a fan of selecting defenders for teams that can’t put a game away and see the game out. Atlanta will stay in this game if it goes down a goal. This match is one I don’t really look to for players. What to watch for in this match, Atlanta has enough talent and I believe it will start to find its groove. When that happens, that is when its players will be worth jumping on. Is this the game?
- Most games have a team that is predicted to concede less than a goal. Because DC United has two games this week and in both, they are predicted to concede under a goal, defenders from them would be a smart selection.
- Los Angles FC is a good pick on either side of the ball. FC Cincinnati has to fly across the country and play the hottest team in MLS. Cincinnati currently has the 15th best offense and 12th best defense. Neither are bad, but neither are great either. LAFC currently sit atop the league with the best offense and the third best defense. Carlos Vela, Diego Rossi, Latif Blessing on offense, Mark-Anthony Kaye, Tyler Miller and Walker Zimmerman on defense look like positive selections for a single match.
- DC United, Montreal Impact, Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders all have two matches this week. Players worth in fantasy could be double, rotation risk is a possibility.
- For more in-depth Fantasy Coverage listen to the On The Bounce podcast, produced locally here in Cincinnati.
For FC Cincinnati’s game versus Los Angles FC, below are the score lines broken down by percentages. Reminder, this is based on teams playing at full strength and under ideal conditions.
Takeaways:
- Top five most likely scores in order: LAFC Win 2-0, LAFC Win 3-0, LAFC Win 1-0, LAFC Win 2-1, LAFC Win 3-1
- FCC has a 7 percent chance of winning and a 13 percent chance of a draw
- FCC being shutout is at 49 percent, while LAFC has a 7 percent chance of being shutout
- FCC must travel cross country across three timezones and start play at 10:30 pm Eastern
- LAFC has the top-ranked offense and third-ranked defense in MLS
- FCC has the 15 ranked offense and the 12 ranked defense in MLS
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