As is tradition, multiple members of the CST staff will be placing their predictions for the upcoming season. Also listed will be that person’s prediction from last season if they did so.
Boston Brazzell-9th last season
Last year’s first-place finish was a bit surprising. We all thought FC Cincinnati would be pretty good but if you think about the length of the season and how skilled overall a club needs to be to earn first place, it hurts the head. It takes skill, quality, luck, key players not getting injured and others stepping up when inevitably someone does. I’m not sure all those dominos will fall the right way again. I’m entering 2024 the same way I entered 2023. I expect FCC to be good and have a home playoff match. In a way, making the playoffs and winning MLS CUP is a lesser feat at this point in time than winning the Supporters Shield. Saying a club will be first in a tournament of limited participants and limited matches is just better odds than saying they will beat every club in MLS (or even just the East) in season-long points. For that reason, I back FCC off a bit and say they finish top 4, and to avoid a cop-out answer, I’ll narrow it down to 3rd place.
Jeremy Miller-1st last season
I wasn’t at all surprised by the shield last year as I had predicted it in 2023 pre-season. It’s tradition at this point for me and I’m not stopping now but anyone can look at the pieces in place and see how everything can line up for another run. Boupendza is now in his second year and that’s what players need to really go off so the Golden Boot is now in play. In addition to another shield, FCC will also be taking the Cup.
Jonathan Foster-4th last season
I know others weren’t surprised, but I still think there is a lot of luck that goes into winning the Supporters Shield beyond just having a good team. Some of the luck is player health and some is schedule congestion. We have seen several teams have successful seasons, then struggle to match that performance with an early season run in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, and I expect FCC to encounter the same troubles. Now, I don’t think they miss out on the playoffs like Seattle did a few years ago, and expect that they comfortably make the playoffs, but I think it is hard to envision them hosting a playoff game this year. I mean, I think it would be hard to host a playoff game this year regardless, because the East is really really good, but with one extra tournament, it just means more chances to stumble into a hole that will be hard to climb out of later in the season.
Impact Player: Matt Miazga. Last year ended with Miazga sitting in the booth due to his actions. The team has been noticeably better with him on the field, and he has become the vocal leader on the field for the team. If we are going to rise to the heights we can this year, then it’s going to require Miazga leading the defense and being on the field.
Justin Blair-3rd last season
In 2023, we knew what we had coming into the season. With our dominant attacking trio and an improved defense, competing for a top Eastern Conference table position was the expectation. Coming into 2024, FCC has question marks. Moving on from Brandon Vazquez, Santiago Arias, Junior Moreno and Yerson Mosquera is not an easy ask. The signings of Corey Baird, Pavel Bucha, Miles Robinson and hopefully Luca Orellano feels like we have plugged those holes, but we all know it doesn’t quite work like that when humans are involved. Relationships, understanding each other and playing for each other are key when building any team, let alone a championship-caliber one. I think FCC will need to lean heavily on the leadership this locker room already has with its players and coaches to pull this thing together. The talent is certainly there to lift a cup but it will take time for that chemistry and understanding to marinate. Between that maturation period for FCC, there are several competitions we need to consider. The U.S. Open Cup will probably still hold the same value to FCC in 2024 as more of a development cup tournament. The two continental tournaments in CONCACAF Champions Cup and Leagues Cup will probably hold more significance in prioritizing who will be available to compete. Will all those competitions considered; I believe FCC will have a lower output in the 2024 points race. I think we can rule out repeating as Supporter’s Sheild Champions for 2024. I could easily see us finishing anywhere from third to sixth in the east. But for the sake of making a prediction, I’ll settle on fifth place.
Impact player: Obinna Nwobodo will be called on to do double duty this season with the absence of Junior Moreno. Moreno was typically a stable presence in the midfield that rarely got caught too high up the field. With the addition of Pavel Bucha and potentially Luca Orellano, the overall attacking mindset of the team has shifted. Nwobodo will be called on to be the dominant do-it-all central defensive midfielder. I have no doubt in his ability and feel like the added load will spotlight him enough to crack the MLS All-Star roster.
Geoff Tebbetts-1st last season
Was my 1st-place prediction last year actually bang on the banana? We had momentum from improvements in 2022 and a vastly improved defensive structure. We had answers in the offense and confidence in the coaching staff. However, by losing at home in the playoffs in a fashion that was all too familiar, last year’s first-place prediction felt unachieved. It didn’t help that our Siamese twin to the north lifted the cup. This year, Pat Noonan and Chris Albright appear to have the replacements in place, but I’m again wondering how deep the bench could be. The lack of scoring from the substitutes bit the Orange & Blue down the stretch last season, and I’m uncertain if that area has been bolstered. Can the homegrown and younger talent from the second team be the answer? Do we have strength on the edges that will counter Barreal’s eventual departure? Apologies, but all of the competitions this season, for both club and country, will be difficult to overcome. The shield is nice, but a cup is easier and more satisfying to lift. I expect a third-place finish, but I also think we still kiss some sort of silverware.
Impact Player: Your defending MVP shouldn’t be considered your impact player when this much of a team undergoes a facelift. Designated players and expensive replacements should come in and do their jobs without anyone considering them “impacts.” If anything, you need to find the existing pieces that can make the next step to occupy the void. If Corey Baird is considered the like-for-like replacement for Brandon Vazquez, then Quimi Ordóñez needs to step out of the shadows and occupy that vital off-the-bench spot that Dom Badji held. The 20-year-old homegrown forward has brought his stock up with good performances for the Guatemalan national team and the FCC second team, but now it’s time for him to provide that spark off the bench. Frankly, all of the youth making the jump from the academy to the first team could fit this role, especially with the bench needing to play confident soccer down the stretch. However, a solid season from Ordóñez as a talent that can slam the door late in games could dispel the ghosts of semifinals past.
Jason Ashcraft-2nd last season
Did FCC get better in the offseason? The additions of Pavel Bucha, Corey Baird and possibly Luca Orellano make me believe that they might have. With Alvaro Barreal coming back for at least half the season and the return of an in-form Lucho Acosta and Aaron Boupenza, the Orange and Blue might have one of the best offenses in Major League Soccer this season. However, I think lessons were learned after last season when it was clear that the team had suffered physically from trying to break the points record. I look for FCC to try to maintain a home playoff game and not go after the Supporters Shield with as much gusto this season. My prediction: FC Cincinnati finishes second in the Eastern Conference behind Columbus.
Impact Player: I know next to nothing about Pavel Bucha other than what I’ve heard and what I’ve heard is nothing but good things. He should add another ball-winner and precise passer to an already strong midfield. As we’ve seen during the preseason, he is also a threat to score. He’s my preseason impact player.
Jeremy Lance-N/A
It’s Year Three of the Noonan/Albright era and expectations couldn’t be higher. 2023 saw FCC supplant itself as one of the big dogs in the league. The trophy cabinet finally has an occupant and the club is set to compete for four to five more in 2024. With the target on its back and an early season schedule congested by the Champions Cup, I think FCC will find the new season a bit harder than the last one. A slow start coupled with an attack that might not be fully built out until summer will see FCC finish third in the East.
Impact player: Aaron Boupendza had really good moments and really rough moments in his first half-season with the Orange and Blue. He will need to find chemistry with Corey Baird and then possibly do it all again if the club brings in a striker over the summer. Moreover, he will have to defeat the stigma created by the club’s spotty history with DP strikers. As the folks on Twitter often say, he is “paid to score goals.” They aren’t wrong.
Nate Gilman-N/A
FCC was the best team in MLS last year throughout the season and in the 2024 offseason, we’ve seen improvements at key positions. The loss of Brandon Vazquez will hurt but expect to see Aaron Boupendza excel in his first full season in the Queen City. He showed promising flashes in limited minutes but given a full offseason, Boupendza should challenge for the Golden Boot. Miles Robinson should be a huge add for the Orange and Blue’s 3-5-2 and, paired with Matt Miazga and Ian Murphy, FCC’s centerbacks could be the best in the league. As for the CONCACAF Champions Cup disruption in the early season, FCC isn’t in a unique position with other potential Eastern Conference challengers struggling with the same issues. I think the Orange and Blue will be more dangerous in the attacking third and maybe a little bit worse defensively – a trade-off I’m content to make as a viewer. Still, I’m picking FCC to win the East again.
Impact Player: It has to be Lucho Acosta. Though we shouldn’t expect to see him score as many goals as he did in 2023, he remains an elite creator and that should continue with Boupendza. Plus, he’ll nutmeg a bunch of people, try rabonas all over the field, and and other things that get people to jump out of their seats.
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