Last week the score predictions correctly predicted six wins but missed on the remaining six games. It may not be perceived as a great week, but going 6-6 on games could be considered a good week. If I would remove the three closest games, the predictive model would be 6-3. Sporting Kansas City vs. Montreal, Columbus vs. Atlanta United, FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia were the games I would have stayed away from, all predicted draws in the model. It is early in the season, and the application of the formula needs more data to become better at estimating the predicted scores.
Reminder: Things the formula cannot take into consideration are injuries, weather, fatigue and international duty. It is based solely on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency when compared to the league’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
Here are this week’s scores:
Running Total for Predicted Scores:
Six correct – six incorrect (All Games)
Six correct – three incorrect (Removing three closest predicted games of the week)
The three games to stay away from this week are New York Red Bulls vs Minnesota United, New York City FC vs. Montreal and Philadelphia vs. FC Dallas
Quick Hits:
- Seattle vs Real Salt Lake looks to be the biggest mismatch. Seattle is predicted to score the most this week and concede the least. I think defensively Seattle’s players are who you look at from a fantasy perspective.
- Toronto is predicted to be the next most potent offensive team. Look at newly acquired Alejandro Pozuelo and returning forward Jozy Altidore for offensive firepower. Portland is also predicted to have a big week offensively, more so because they play San Jose. Not sure I trust the Timbers offense quite yet, but there could be value there.
- On the defensive side of the ball, DC United is predicted to not concede. However, I do not trust this game. It’s the No. 1 defense (DC United) vs. the No. 1 Offense (Los Angeles FC). I stay away from this game just because I am not sure how it will play out.
- The defensive teams I look at besides Seattle are Columbus and Toronto
- Sporting KC would normally be a good pick playing against Cincinnati, however, Kansas City has a midweek game in the Concacaf Champions League (CCL). Who will Kansas City play against Cincinnati? I would assume that Kansas City is going full out for CCL and would need to rest players after the midweek tilt.
For FC Cincinnati’s game versus Sporting Kansas City, below is the score lines broken down by percentages. Reminder, this is based on teams playing at full strength and under ideal conditions.
Takeaways:
- Top five most likely scores in order: KC Win 2-0, KC Win 2-1, KC Win 1-0, KC Win 3-0, Draw 1-1
- FCC has a 12 percent chance of winning and a 17 percent chance of a draw
- FCC being shutout is at 41 percent, while Sporting KC has a 9 percent chance of being shutout
- Kansas City has a midweek game against Liga MX side Monterey. So they may not be a strong as this model is predicting.
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