Four years ago, the USMNT had qualified for the Qatar World Cup in 2022 after completely fumbling the egg in 2018. The city of Cincinnati felt instrumental in that progressive lift through qualifications, with the words “Dos a cero” again reverberating after the USMNT’s monumental 2-0 win over Mexico at TQL Stadium. The excitement was physically and mentally palpable at the time, especially in the Buckeye State.
While it didn’t result in immediate advancement through the knockout rounds, it did encourage the staff at CST to get involved. We thought it would be entertaining to put our collective guesswork into play and weed through the 32 teams. Our octet of participants drafted four teams each to root for, just in case the U.S. fell short of expectations. We’re pretty sure out former writer Tim Bredemeier held bragging rights after Argentina lifted the cup, but that was four long years ago.
This time around, despite CONCACAF qualification being a non-factor, the buildup to the 2026 World Cup has been more of a rollercoaster than in the past. The dramas behind ticket affordability, local municipal infrastructure, and visa turbulence have confounded both teams and fans. It’s been harder this cycle to really get excited about attending the matches, let alone infuse our attention into the tournament.
The mere fact alone that 48 teams would attend the tournament this time around threw a major wrench into our own draft mechanics. Eight participants would not be enough, and the archaic scoring system would need fine tuning.
Three of the participants from the last cycle (Justin Blair, Coach Gough, Geoff Tebbetts) have returned to give it another stab. Seven staff members who have joined since then (Josh Dye, Jose Guerra, Mike Hudson, Jacob Holton, Jeremy Lance, Cam Lewis, Rupesh Sharma) have all thrown their hats into the ring. To fill out the rest of the spots, we asked Kenta Hagiwara (Asian Football Show) and D.J. Switzer (Wrong Side of the Pond) to join us.
The game is semi-simple. Twelve players and 48 teams means that each participant gets to draft four teams in a snake-draft format. Points are associated to teams that qualify for the next round, and the person with the most points in the end gets a special prize. (Big thanks to Coach Gough for suggesting that we play for more than just bragging rights.)
Scoring Criteria:
- 2 points for each team advancing past the group stage.
- 2 points for each win in the Round of 32.
- 2 points for each win in the Round of 16.
- 3 points for each win in the quarterfinals.
- 3 points for each win in the semifinals.
- 5 points if your team wins the World Cup.
We pushed the names through a randomizer to determine the order of picking. After each participant made their first-round pick, the second round started with the last person to pick in the first round, and we went back up the ladder. The third and fourth rounds went through the same process until everyone had four teams.
(While this pick order was “randomly” generated, I personally feel that A.I. has a vendetta against me ever since I gave it lip for making the worst end-of-season MLS superlative picks. I know what you robots are up to. – Geoff)
Round 1:
France (Josh)
Spain (Rupesh)
Argentina (Kenta)
England (Justin)
Brazil (Coach)
Netherlands (Jeremy)
Germany (D.J.)
Portugal (Jose)
Belgium (Jacob)
Morocco (Cam)
Colombia (Mike)
Croatia (Geoff)
With the expanded field, choosing a finalist almost becomes a luck of the draw. In this case, Josh and Rupesh selected the best odds right off the bat, claiming France (+500) and Spain (+475), but Kenta went with the defending champions. While Justin and Coach took safe options, Jeremy went with a hungry Netherlands squad that lost to the eventual 2022 champions in penalties. D.J., Jose, and Jacob vacuumed up the rest of the big teams from Pot 1, forcing the remaining crew to take the best teams from Pot 2.
Don’t be surprised if Morocco (#8 in FIFA’s world rankings), Croatia (#11), and Colombia (#13) shake up the learning tree, despite not being in the first pot.
Round 2:
Norway (Geoff)
Ecuador (Mike)
Senegal (Cam)
Uruguay (Jacob)
Switzerland (Jose)
USA (D.J.)
Mexico (Jeremy)
Canada (Coach)
Japan (Justin)
Türkiye (Kenta)
Sweden (Rupesh)
South Korea (Josh)
The pickings were still good in the second round, but Geoff dove deeper to pick Norway, a team lower in the FIFA rankings (#31), but higher in potential odds (+3000). While the next four chose safer picks in Pot 2, D.J. picked the first of the three hosts, hanging his hopes on Pochettino’s Yanks. Jeremy chose the spicy queso of Mexico, while Coach opted for the milder poutine of Canada.
Justin pilfered Japan before Kenta could take his motherland, so Kenta opted for Türkiye, arguably the strongest qualifier from the European play-in matches. Rupesh hung his hopes on a Swedish team that scraped through qualifiers on the strength of their Nations League performance. Meanwhile, Josh picked a South Korean squad that was undefeated in qualification but still struggled to win six out of ten matches.
Round 3:
Austria (Josh)
Scotland (Rupesh)
Algeria (Kenta)
Iran (Justin)
Ivory Coast (Coach)
Czechia (Jeremy)
Egypt (D.J.)
Paraguay (Jose)
Australia (Jacob)
Panama (Cam)
Uzbekistan (Mike)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (Geoff)
The expanded tournament made the third picks riskier than ever. Many of the teams picked at this stage likely will qualify through a third-place finish. Josh, Rupesh, and Justin swore by the security of teams from Pot 2. Jeremy leaned on the spirit of Pavel Bucha to pick Czechia, even though the FCC midfielder was ultimately left off the final roster.
Jose and Jacob might likely fight for that third-place finish in Group D, picking teams that hung on the border between Pot 2 and Pot 3. Meanwhile, Kenta, Coach, and D.J. all grabbed strong outliers in African qualification, while Mike leaned on a pre-generated ELO list to make his Asian pick. Geoff…well, his BIH pick may or may not have been influenced by a banger of a World Cup song.
Round 4:
Curacao (Geoff)
Jordan (Mike)
Tunisia (Cam)
Ghana (Jacob)
Saudi Arabia (Jose)
Haiti (D.J.)
Qatar (Jeremy)
South Africa (Coach)
Congo DR (Justin)
Cape Verde (Kenta)
Iraq (Rupesh)
New Zealand (Josh)
The final stretch featured zero of the 16 UEFA teams and six CONMEBOL teams. Geoff was again likely pressured by his peers and the spirit of Jurgen Locadia to pick debutantes Curacao. Both Mike and Kenta also went with debutantes in Jordan and Cape Verde, while Rupesh, Justin, and D.J. picked teams that hadn’t qualified in over 40 years.
Jacob and Jose did well to pick the only two teams left to have escaped group-stage play in the past. Meanwhile, Jeremy and Coach both picked teams that once hosted the tournament, but who both had failed to get out of their group stage. Cam rolled with a Tunisian team that has made it six times previously, but has not made it to the knockout stages at all.
Josh ends with New Zealand, hoping that the team can be the first representative of Oceania to make it out of group-stage participation since Australia in 2006.
What do you think of the pick and who has the strongest group?
| Results | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 | Pick 4 |
| JOSH | France | South Korea | Austria | New Zealand |
| RUPESH | Spain | Sweden | Scotland | Iraq |
| KENTA | Argentina | Turkiye | Algeria | Cape Verde |
| JUSTIN | England | Japan | Iran | Congo DR |
| COACH | Brazil | Canada | Ivory Coast | South Africa |
| JEREMY | Netherlands | Mexico | Czechia | Qatar |
| D.J. | Germany | USA | Egypt | Haiti |
| JOSE | Portugal | Switzerland | Paraguay | Saudi Arabia |
| JACOB | Belgium | Uruguay | Australia | Ghana |
| CAM | Morocco | Senegal | Panama | Tunisia |
| MIKE | Colombia | Ecuador | Uzbekistan | Jordan |
| GEOFF | Croatia | Norway | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Curacao |
Staff Draft Review:
Josh Dye:
My first pick ultimately came down to a proverbial coin flip—youthful hype (Spain) or experienced vengeance (France). I went with latter, believing that Les Bleus will use the pain of the 2022 World Cup Final as fuel.
The South Korea and Austria picks were based on “who is left that has an easier group they could sneak out of.” Also, both have great shirts that would look nice in the collection. (Looking at you, South Korea away jersey.)
Nothing against the Kiwis, but they were literally the last ones left. (I’m still salty that Curaçao was taken early. That shirt is beautiful.)
Rupesh Sharma:
The only pick I planned for was my first pick in the draft. The team I was hoping to get was Spain, and luckily, I did. La Furia Roja have been one of the best teams in the world since the 2022 World Cup, winning the UEFA Nations League in 2023, UEFA Championship in 2024, and the Gold Medal at Olympics in Paris in 2024. The depth in Spain’s midfield is the thing of dreams and with players like Rodri, Pedri, and Gavi, just to name a few. The one area of concern with the team is injuries to two of their starting wingers, Yamine Lamal and Nico Williams. Both players are in a race against time to be fit for the tournament, but if they are, Spain will be a tough out.
I picked the rest of my teams based on best team available and got Sweden, Scotland, and Iraq. I am happy with Sweden and Scotland, because that allows me to root for Alexander Isak and Andy Robertson, both of whom played for my favorite team, Liverpool GC, last season.
Kenta Hagiwara:
With Spain and France off the board, the defending champions were the obvious next choice. If Spain and France both top their groups and advance to the knockouts, they match up in the semifinals, on the other side of the bracket compared to Argentina. Not to mention, it’s hard to imagine Messi and Co. won’t feel great support for their team at every match this World Cup. No more real explanation needed.
I do think Türkiye are the favorites in Group D alongside a USMNT side they beat back in June last year. Their ability to hang with the best of Europe, headlined by a strong 2-2 draw against Spain, is enough for me to see them moving on to the knockout stage. A second place group stage finish would see Türkiye face second in Group G, and topping Group D would see them face a third place team. Both are rather favorable matchups in the knockout stage.
Algeria are a tough matchup for any nation at the World Cup and are drawn into a group with Argentina, Austria, and Jordan. The final matchday of the group stage between Algeria and Austria will likely prove the pivotal match, with debutants Jordan likely not causing too many problems for the three other nations in the group. Picking two NTs from the same group is a bit of a risky move, but with eight of 12 third place teams moving on, I think a strong performance against Jordan should be enough.
Cape Verde are in a tough group, especially with Spain, a tough matchup for any nation. However, Uruguay’s form has been downright horrendous recently, including that 5-1 loss on US soil to the USMNT. I have even less confidence in Saudi Arabia, who had a disastrous World Cup qualification cycle that barely saw them qualify and a newly-appointed manager in Georgios Donis in April…2026. All things considered, it’s a doable group for Cape Verde, who can definitely hold their own.
Coach Gough:
With the fifth pick in the draft, I really felt like all the true contenders were off the board. So, if your team probably isn’t going to win it all, then why not pick on vibes? And what better vibes to pick on than Jogo Bonita?! With Carlo Ancelloti at the helm, could Samba football be back? With Vinicius Jr. in his prime, they have proven talent across the pitch, and even as slight underdogs, I don’t think anyone will relish having to play A Seleção in the knockout rounds.
With my second pick, I prioritized teams that I thought I could root for. Canada topped that list, so I reached to snag them. I’ve been a bit of a Canadaphile since I played hockey in college. Plus, between the country as a whole being treated like a red-headed step brother by the US Government, Jesse Marsch getting looked over by US Soccer, and having a host of players with perpetual chips on their shoulders, this team is the ultimate underdog.
For pick three, I was really just looking for teams that had a good shot at making it out of their group. Ivory Coast will be fighting it out with Ecuador and Curaçao for second or third, and I like their chances of grabbing at least third place there.
My final pick was always going to be a throw-away, and I knew nothing about the remaining teams. I grabbed South Africa because they play Mexico in the tournament opener at the Azteca, and watching that match with a rooting interest might actually get my hyped for this tournament that has otherwise struggled to get my juices flowing. (Thanks, geo-political corruption!)
D.J. Switzer:
My strategy was twofold–pick the highest ranked teams remaining and pick teams that had a chance of advancing out of their groups. By the time my first pick rolled around, Germany were the clear remaining team that satisfied both of those qualifications and have tendency of making deeper runs.
With many of the traditional powers gone by my second pick, I opted for the surprisingly-still-on-the-
For Pick #3, Egypt got my pick as they’re in a group with only one clear favorite. And for my final selection, with none of the remaining sides likely to make much noise…I went with the Haitians, hoping for some CONCACAF-iness to do me some favors.
Jose Guerra:
After the knowledgeable and aggressive CST staff took the best picks, I was left with just a couple of attractive options. Portugal have a strong attacking depth with Bruno Fernandes (attacking midfielder at Manchester United), Bernardo Silva (midfielder and winger at Manchester City), and of course, Ronaldo (striker and playing for Al-Nassr). They have cohesion since many have played together either at the club or national levels. Their weakness will be that at times they depend too much on their stars, and they can be inconsistent on the defensive side of the ball. However, the team may put in an extra effort knowing that this will be Ronaldo’s last World Cup.
There were audible gasps from the CST staff in the draft as I picked Switzerland. Not exactly a world beater but they have surprised pundits in previous World Cups and Euro Cups as well by beating teams that were considered soccer powers such as Spain in 2010 and France in Euro Cup 2020. They are very well organized in their backline and have a strong midfield, but they will struggle against top-tier teams.
The rest of my picks were teams that I felt were above what was left. Paraguay can be tough in their physical play, and they will probably sneak into the next round as a best 3rd place. Saudi Arabia might also be able to sneak into the next round as a best 3rd place but that’s as far as they’ll go.
Jacob Holton:
My first pick in the draft came at the end of the first round. All of the big favorites were off the board, but there were still a couple great teams available who could make a deep run. Belgium ended up being my pick because they might be more desperate than others. They are coming to an end of their golden generation, and maybe that’s enough to push them over the hump.
Uruguay was my second pick. A few teams got sniped right in front of me, and in my mind they were the best remaining team available. Uruguay has a great manager in Marcelo Bielsa and is usually a safe bet to make it through the group stage with high upside for a deep run.
I picked Australia with my third pick for vibes only. Who doesn’t want to cheer on the Socceroos during the world cup? I was a huge fan of my fourth round dart throw in Ghana. Ghana is not as talented as they once were, but would a deep run to the round of 16 be that shocking?
Geoff Tebbetts:
Both Norway and Croatia had no issues with World Cup qualification, and while some may argue that doesn’t produce the biggest confidence boosts, it should give them both ammunition for larger targets.
The Røde, Hvite, Blå ate their opponents’ lunches in World Cup qualification, as Erling Haaland alone scored more goals (16) than Estonia and Moldova did combined (13). The home tilt against Moldova was an unbalanced 11-1 embarrassment, the lone goal scored by Moldova being an own goal. Norway has also carefully scaled the UEFA Nations League, even though they hit Spain’s UEFA Euro 2024 buzzsaw and failed to advance further.
Croatia also saw no issues in qualifying, winning seven of eight, the lone draw a 0-0 result against Czechia. The “Checkered Ones” were the 2023-24 Nations League runners-up to Spain and put a decent scare into France in the 2024-25 Nations League quarterfinals. Both Norway and Croatia have challenges in their own group stages, but if they can grab a second-place advancement, I think they can upset some apple carts.
As for Bosnia & Herzegovina and Curacao? I loved the BIH playing for their lives against Wales and Italy, qualifying with late equalizers and heroic penalty kicks to destroy feel-good stories. Meanwhile, the Blue Wave of Curacao went undefeated in qualification, slugging through CONCACAF mini-giants Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago to get to their first dance. Still, unless a few minor miracles occur, I don’t expect to be going far.
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