Allow me to note that my use of “polemical” is not meant to demean the club, but instead to criticize their play from an empirical standpoint.
A 3-match week for FC Cincinnati couldn’t have gone much worse. They were clobbered 4-2 in Atlanta and lost Hagglund to a long-term rib/lung injury, dropped a 2-0 lead to draw 3-3 against Dallas in Lucho’s return to TQL, and looked clueless in a 2-1 home loss to DC United—their first of the league season.
The big picture for this team? They have had just 8 points out of a possible 21 since the beginning of May, and just 2 wins in that span. Looking ahead? After away matches against easier opponents like New England and Montreal, they must face Orlando, Columbus, and Miami twice before the Leagues Cup break.
A majority of the fanbase, mostly concentrated in the echo chambers of Twitter, have gone into panic mode. Some are raising questions of the management or are blaming the players; others are saying it is a simple ebb.
But whatever it is, it won’t get easier if they do not find a remedy.
MY CONCERN
With no disrespect to the management or to the players themselves, I am concerned with the entire system in 2025. Each week has felt like trying to put a square peg in a round hole, with a large chunk of success being due to individual brilliance.
FC Cincinnati has yet to win against a top opponent. Some would say Nashville should count, but they weren’t in-form. They have, however, been unequivocally outmatched against such teams: getting battered on the road in Philly, shut out by both Charlotte and New York City, and barely escaping with a draw in Hell is Real.
When there were wins, they came against opponents that were expected to lose. And even then, many fans have noted how jumbled their play has looked; two or three matches at most have passed the eye test, while they have appeared outmatched in all the rest.
The numbers agree:
- Their 1.47 goals scored per match and 1.41 goals conceded per match are rated as average on FootyStats
- Out of the top 10 possession averages, they scored the 3rd least amount of goals with 25 through an average of 51.8% per Fotmob
- In the xGD table, they are second to last in the East with -4.9 on FBRef
- They are the only team in the top four of the East to have a negative xGD per 90 with -0.28 on FBRef
As we saw with St. Louis in 2023, the numbers eventually catch up with you. You can only eke out points for so long; when they no longer matter in the playoffs and you have to be consistent, your season will end.
And yes, FC Cincinnati are in an applaudable 2nd place in the East. But they were once in 1st, and have now gone 4 points off of the Shield, with that gap possibly growing wider as Vancouver and Miami have matches in-hand. Their place has been further masked by the fact that almost every Eastern team in a playoff position has had shaky form.
There are undeniable problems in this team that must be addressed, otherwise they risk slipping down the table. I start with what I believe to be the main factor: the lineup, which I think is dysfunctional.
THE ATTACK
Let me start with the attack. The expectations for Denkey and Evander, a $28 million duo, aren’t just sky-high, but star-high. On their own, they have been successful—12 goals and one assist for the former, with nine goals and six assists for the latter.
But by my count, only two of their 21 goals have been assisted by each other. This is an issue of Evander’s positioning, which is what I believe to be one of the biggest headaches for this lineup. Chalk it up to chemistry, or opposition press, or whatever you want, but it has been stunting many an offensive drive for the Orange and Blue. If this doesn’t get fixed, don’t expect a solution for the rest of the attack.
It also doesn’t help that a revolving door of players have been in that second striker/dual center attacking midfielder role. Luca Orellano was once employed there but moved to wing-back—he has been inconsistent, and hopefully it is only due to injury recovery. Dado Valenzuela has done better than anyone in this position but has not yet been relied on as a full-time starter.
If Evander is not positioned where he should be, then a series of dominoes fall, affecting the rest of the lineup. I am by no means blaming everything on him, but he is the fulcrum, and any success in 2025 will be due mostly to what he does.
THE MIDFIELD
That leads me to the midfield. When Evander drops back to the double pivot or even further, he leaves a huge amount of space where an attacking midfielder should be. It has often been Bucha who covers, but that leaves Nwobodo all alone to defend—and reciprocate the ball, which he is not meant to do—in the vertical ground while Evander roams. When this happens, and it does at least a few times per match, it leaves the midfield outnumbered by one, two, or even three bodies.
While the double pivot is in place, Obi is forced to play a progressive pass—like a CAM—and it is intercepted
Bucha must advance, leaving only Obi as the midfielder to help on defense
THE DEFENSE
Another factor of success in 2025, and any season under Noonan’s system, will be due to the defense. In like fashion to 2024, injuries have rendered it almost ineffective. It is just Robinson as a guaranteed starter while Miazga tries to regain full fitness. Hadebe would play as a left center back, if not for losing his spot to Hagglund. That leaves a back three of Robinson, maybe Miazga, a disappointing Hadebe, or a depth player like Flores or Powell, who are not ideal starters, to fill in where necessary. For those reasons, they are tied for second in the East for most goals conceded among teams in a playoff position.
MORE RAMBLINGS
For these reasons, I suggest that a back three does not suit this lineup. Dare I say that their positional play is set up for failure? Is it time for a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3, or even a 4-4-2 diamond which would be familiar to Noonan’s Philadelphia days?
A back four system would be, at least, temporarily helpful. A center-back duo of Robinson and Miazga/Flores as starters with Engel-Yedlin having fewer attacking duties seems formidable enough and would provide cover for a midfield trio of Evander, Bucha, and Obi if the latter has to cover more ground. A front line with Orellano and Santos/Dado on the wings could be more supportive for Denkey.
If the 4-4-2 diamond is used, it would guarantee numerical superiority in the midfield. Evander could be moved up as the second striker to relieve him of his duties as an attacking midfielder or could be a roaming #8. Regardless, there are options that better suit this lineup.
TO CONCLUDE
Most of the struggle is from positional disparities, but there are also minor, more temporary factors. A three-match week will invite fatigue, and although that is a conditioning concern, a break will likely soothe it. There is also more than half of the season to go for the players to gain chemistry.
I wouldn’t argue that a change in management is necessary. I think that is ridiculous to suggest, considering how much Noonan and Albright have achieved already and how much more of 2025 is left to go with a very capable squad.
To put it short: if something is changed, there is still hope (or hOPE?)
Allow me to note that my use of “polemical” is not meant to demean the club, but instead to criticize their play from an empirical standpoint.
A 3-match week for FC Cincinnati couldn’t have gone much worse. They were clobbered 4-2 in Atlanta and lost Hagglund to a long-term rib/lung injury, dropped a 2-0 lead to draw 3-3 against Dallas in Lucho’s return to TQL, and looked clueless in a 2-1 home loss to DC United—their first of the league season.
The big picture for this team? They have had just 8 points out of a possible 21 since the beginning of May, and just 2 wins in that span. Looking ahead? After away matches against easier opponents like New England and Montreal, they must face Orlando, Columbus, and Miami twice before the Leagues Cup break.
A majority of the fanbase, mostly concentrated in the echo chambers of Twitter, have gone into panic mode. Some are raising questions of the management or are blaming the players; others are saying it is a simple ebb.
But whatever it is, it won’t get easier if they do not find a remedy.
MY CONCERN
With no disrespect to the management or to the players themselves, I am concerned with the entire system in 2025. Each week has felt like trying to put a square peg in a round hole, with a large chunk of success being due to individual brilliance.
FC Cincinnati has yet to win against a top opponent. Some would say Nashville should count, but they weren’t in-form. They have, however, been unequivocally outmatched against such teams: getting battered on the road in Philly, shut out by both Charlotte and New York City, and barely escaping with a draw in Hell is Real.
When there were wins, they came against opponents that were expected to lose. And even then, many fans have noted how jumbled their play has looked; two or three matches at most have passed the eye test, while they have appeared outmatched in all the rest.
The numbers agree:
As we saw with St. Louis in 2023, the numbers eventually catch up with you. You can only eke out points for so long; when they no longer matter in the playoffs and you have to be consistent, your season will end.
And yes, FC Cincinnati are in an applaudable 2nd place in the East. But they were once in 1st, and have now gone 4 points off of the Shield, with that gap possibly growing wider as Vancouver and Miami have matches in-hand. Their place has been further masked by the fact that almost every Eastern team in a playoff position has had shaky form.
There are undeniable problems in this team that must be addressed, otherwise they risk slipping down the table. I start with what I believe to be the main factor: the lineup, which I think is dysfunctional.
THE ATTACK
Let me start with the attack. The expectations for Denkey and Evander, a $28 million duo, aren’t just sky-high, but star-high. On their own, they have been successful—12 goals and one assist for the former, with nine goals and six assists for the latter.
But by my count, only two of their 21 goals have been assisted by each other. This is an issue of Evander’s positioning, which is what I believe to be one of the biggest headaches for this lineup. Chalk it up to chemistry, or opposition press, or whatever you want, but it has been stunting many an offensive drive for the Orange and Blue. If this doesn’t get fixed, don’t expect a solution for the rest of the attack.
It also doesn’t help that a revolving door of players have been in that second striker/dual center attacking midfielder role. Luca Orellano was once employed there but moved to wing-back—he has been inconsistent, and hopefully it is only due to injury recovery. Dado Valenzuela has done better than anyone in this position but has not yet been relied on as a full-time starter.
If Evander is not positioned where he should be, then a series of dominoes fall, affecting the rest of the lineup. I am by no means blaming everything on him, but he is the fulcrum, and any success in 2025 will be due mostly to what he does.
THE MIDFIELD
That leads me to the midfield. When Evander drops back to the double pivot or even further, he leaves a huge amount of space where an attacking midfielder should be. It has often been Bucha who covers, but that leaves Nwobodo all alone to defend—and reciprocate the ball, which he is not meant to do—in the vertical ground while Evander roams. When this happens, and it does at least a few times per match, it leaves the midfield outnumbered by one, two, or even three bodies.
While the double pivot is in place, Obi is forced to play a progressive pass—like a CAM—and it is intercepted
Bucha must advance, leaving only Obi as the midfielder to help on defense
THE DEFENSE
Another factor of success in 2025, and any season under Noonan’s system, will be due to the defense. In like fashion to 2024, injuries have rendered it almost ineffective. It is just Robinson as a guaranteed starter while Miazga tries to regain full fitness. Hadebe would play as a left center back, if not for losing his spot to Hagglund. That leaves a back three of Robinson, maybe Miazga, a disappointing Hadebe, or a depth player like Flores or Powell, who are not ideal starters, to fill in where necessary. For those reasons, they are tied for second in the East for most goals conceded among teams in a playoff position.
MORE RAMBLINGS
For these reasons, I suggest that a back three does not suit this lineup. Dare I say that their positional play is set up for failure? Is it time for a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3, or even a 4-4-2 diamond which would be familiar to Noonan’s Philadelphia days?
A back four system would be, at least, temporarily helpful. A center-back duo of Robinson and Miazga/Flores as starters with Engel-Yedlin having fewer attacking duties seems formidable enough and would provide cover for a midfield trio of Evander, Bucha, and Obi if the latter has to cover more ground. A front line with Orellano and Santos/Dado on the wings could be more supportive for Denkey.
If the 4-4-2 diamond is used, it would guarantee numerical superiority in the midfield. Evander could be moved up as the second striker to relieve him of his duties as an attacking midfielder or could be a roaming #8. Regardless, there are options that better suit this lineup.
TO CONCLUDE
Most of the struggle is from positional disparities, but there are also minor, more temporary factors. A three-match week will invite fatigue, and although that is a conditioning concern, a break will likely soothe it. There is also more than half of the season to go for the players to gain chemistry.
I wouldn’t argue that a change in management is necessary. I think that is ridiculous to suggest, considering how much Noonan and Albright have achieved already and how much more of 2025 is left to go with a very capable squad.
To put it short: if something is changed, there is still hope (or hOPE?)
Recommended for you