Kevin Kelsy arrived in the Queen City and made an immediate impact. He scored huge goals against Columbus and Atlanta in two of his first three games for FC Cincinnati. But lately, he’s been on the outside of the starting XI looking in. Chris Albright’s decision to loan-to-buy Kelsy was always a shrewd move, giving the team time to see how he fit in the Queen City, but time is running short to decide whether or not to trigger the reportedly $7 million buy-option.
And Chris Albright and company will face a tough decision. Despite his hot start, Kelsy’s first season with the Orange and Blue has been a mixed bag.
Fifteen Games In
In 800 minutes, per Fbref, Kelsy is averaging 0.18 expected goals per 90 minutes, ranking in the seventh percentile among strikers. American Soccer Analysis’ xG model, calculated from the same Opta event data but slightly different inputs, grades Kelsy’s opportunities slightly higher, putting him at 0.29 xG/96 minutes, ranking Kelsy 74th among MLS players with at least 800 minutes of game time in 2024.
Different xG models aside, there should be alarm bells ringing about Kelsy’s ability to keep up the same level of production that he’s enjoyed so far this season. One of the most important things a striker can do is get into good shooting positions. If a striker consistently finds space to take shots, they’re generally pretty good. Just look at the players with the most shots/90 in MLS this year: Cucho, Lionel Messi, Raul Ruiduiz, Denis Bouanga, and Chicho Arango. Those players have combined for 66 goals so far. All five of those players are averaging more than 4.6 shots per 90 minutes.
Kelsy is taking 1.91 shots/90. It’s obvious to say but it’s a whole lot easier to score more goals when you have more shots. The root cause of his lack of shots seems pretty straightforward: he’s just not touching the ball in the box enough. Kelsy’s 3.60 touches in the attacking penalty area per 90 minutes rank in the 13th percentile among strikers.
To be fair, he isn’t the first FCC striker to be on an island considering how thoroughly Lucho Acosta dominates shot and goal creation in this part of the field. Finding the right angles and spaces to attack while timing a run correctly to Acosta’s dribbling will take time. Kelsy’s roadmap to future success in the box seems to thrive more on connecting with Luca Orellano, DeAndre Yedlin or another player receiving a pass from Acosta in position to cut the ball back across goal, either on the ground where Kelsy can attack the near post or in the air where he can use his size to bully retreating defenders.
Kelsy has struggled to be a consistent contributor in the build-up phase of play, too. Per 90 minutes, he is averaging just 4.28 progressive passes received per 90 minutes (18th percentile among strikers). Yes, the Orange and Blue are still looking to build out of the back more often than in previous seasons meaning there are fewer long balls for a target forward to attack. But Kelsy just hasn’t consistently provided an outlet up the field for teammates. Holding the ball up, finding a teammate and triggering moments of transition was a staple of the Orange and Blue’s attacking style in previous seasons under Pat Noonan.
A Tough Decision
After all of the above, it’s worth emphasizing that Kelsy just turned 20 on July 27. So there’s still plenty of projecting what he’ll look like next year and beyond in the decision-making process. Kelsy is far from a finished product. His status as a (likely) U-22 player going forward is a mark in his favor given MLS’s new rules but at the end of the day, $7 million is a lot to spend on a transfer that still contains an element of risk.
The Leagues’ Cup break should provide some answers, however. The long break between MLS games should give Kelsy even more time to adjust to the team on the practice field and hopefully, Noonan will be willing to give him more minutes on the field. It’s in the best interest of the team to see exactly what it has in Kelsy. Though the first 15 games of his career in Cincinnati have been a mixed bag, the path to a permanent move is pretty clear. Look for Kelsy to be more involved in build-up patterns and then to find ways to impact the game in the final third. If the Orange and Blue can produce repeatable patterns of play that get Kelsy looks at goal, the team could take another step forward in the second half of the season.
