MLS Wager Watch – Rivalry Week Around MLS

MLS Wager Watch

It’s Rivalry Week in Major League Soccer and this week’s MLS Wager Watch takes a closer look at Hell is Real and another derby in Texas.

Photo Credit: Seth -

What a weekend we had in Major League Soccer folks. Some of these results were quite eye-opening. None of you, and I mean NONE OF YOU, had San Jose knocking off LAFC last weekend. We got the over correct, but wow, LAFC just cannot win on the road so far this season. FC Cincinnati scored in the first 17 seconds of the match, played up a man for about 60 minutes and hung on for a 1-0 win. How on Earth did the Orange and Blue not manage to get a 2nd goal? Unreal.

There was some positive news though from last weekend. Because yours truly doesn’t know how to read a schedule properly, the CF Montreal and Inter Miami CF match I previewed last week and placed a wager on is THIS WEEKEND. I don’t know what I was thinking last week. On the bright side though it means I only lost two bets. Let’s bounce back in a big way this weekend with the first Rivalry Week of the season. Onto Week 13.

Weekend Results: 0-2, down 2 units

Year-to-Date: 8-18-2 down 12.5 units.

NOTE: Odds below subject to change


Columbus Crew: MONEYLINE -130
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE +350

Hell is Real, and Hell is how I would describe the gambling season I’m currently putting together. Hell would be Lucho Acosta not being available this weekend in Columbus. I liked what I saw from the brief amount of time new striker Kevin Kelsy was on the pitch in Orlando. I’d like to think he’ll get the start this weekend. Maybe he can etch his name in the history books of this in-state rivalry. DeAndre Yedlin is also nursing an injury. The Orange and Blue are due for a win in Columbus.

Columbus, on the other hand, is a well-oiled machine. They’re into the final of the CONCACAF Champions Cup, knocking off Monterrey in impressive fashion. Their early season attention has been spent there, and rightfully so. They currently sit in fifth in the East and have drawn five straight matches. They haven’t won a league match since a 3-0 whipping of Red Bulls back on March 16th. However, they haven’t played a match since they knocked off Monterey on May 1st. They’re going to be very well-rested for Cincy.

PICK: Columbus Crew DOUBLE CHANCE -490 plus OVER 2.5 goals -126 parlayed for +121 for 1 unit.


FC Dallas: MONEYLINE -110
Austin FC: MONEYLINE +280

It feels like it’s just been a round-robin of Texas rivalry games over the past few weeks. Austin went on the road to Houston and now they’re heading to Frisco. Don’t look now, but Austin currently sits in a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Yeah, after a couple of weeks of betting against them, maybe it’s time to take a hard look at myself and admit that maybe, just maybe, Austin’s a lot better than we give them credit for. They’ve won four of their last six matches and are coming off a tough draw against a solid Vancouver side.

With that said, they’re still dead last in MLS when it comes to scoring chances in open play. They’re second-worst when it comes to preventing scoring chances. Goalkeeper Brad Stuver is standing on his head keeping them in games. That, to me, shows they’re a team that’s just scratching and clawing to survive, maybe even resilient. Can they keep up this weekend?

Meanwhile, Dallas is just awful. They’ve lost six of their first 10, including a 2-1 loss in Austin last month. They’re only slightly better than Austin when it comes to creating chances. They’re seventh in expected goals against. Through their first 10 matches, their matches have gone over 2.5 goals 7 times.

I’m a little concerned that Dallas is so heavily favored in this match. I know they’re the home team but their form is not great, and Austin seems to be gaining some momentum. The odds we’re getting here seem too good to be true.

PICK: Austin FC DOUBLE CHANCE -130 plus OVER 0.5 goals -1800, parlayed for +104 for 1 unit.

Those are the picks for this week, but ,of course, we still have our CF Montreal/Inter Miami wager from last week – if you want to check that out again you can read it here. I still think Miami is going to absolutely walk over Montreal this weekend.

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