How about that! A winning weekend here at the MLS Wager Watch! FC Cincinnati held down the fort against a tougher than people give credit for Colorado side. LAFC also handled business against Portland. These two matches were the two that I was most concerned with results going our way last weekend.
Now, the LA Galaxy went on the road to Austin and absolutely laid an egg. I was confident their high-powered offense would light up the scoreboard against the Green and Black. Instead, they went to Texas and got spanked. I just did not see that coming from the top team in the West.
We’re hitting the road with our picks this week. For the first time in the short history of MLS Wager Watch, I’m making plays on three road teams this weekend. Let’s hope we can keep the winning going.
Weekend Results: 2-1, up 1.060 units
Year-to-Date: 8-16-2 down 10.5 units.
NOTE: Odds below subject to change
ORLANDO CITY SC v FC CINCINNATI
Orlando City SC: MONEYLINE +105
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE +250
DRAW: MONEYLINE +230
When researching this game, on paper, this looks to be a comfortable FCC win. Orlando struggles to score goals and their defense is one of the leakiest in the league. I expected Cincinnati to be dogs on the road this weekend, but not by this margin. Further research shows that they opened the week as +275 underdogs so there’s been some money coming in on the Orange and Blue. Yes, FCC will be without Aaron Boupendza for the foreseeable future. Yes, new striker Kevin Kelsy will take some time to adjust to a new country, new team and new league. FCC is still third-best in the league in expected goals against but hasn’t kept a clean sheet since their shutout of NYCFC back in late March.
Orlando is middle of the pack when it comes to chance creation. They average 1.2 goals per game. They have conceded the third most goals in the Eastern Conference and are eighth in expected goals against in open play. They’ve also conceded the most goals in MLS from the run of play. They’re also coming off a home loss to a struggling Toronto FC team.
PICK: FC Cincinnati DOUBLE CHANCE -150 plus Total Goals OVER 1.5 -430 parlayed for +116 for 1 unit.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES v LAFC
San Jose Earthquakes: MONEYLINE +200
LAFC: MONEYLINE +115
DRAW: MONEYLINE +260
Yes, I’m going right back to the LAFC well this week. They broke a string of 2-2 draws with a 3-2 over 10-man Portland on Saturday night. Though they somehow managed to blow a two-goal lead in the 2nd half, the red card ultimately changed the game. LAFC is still doing a good job of limiting opponents from great looks at goal, as they’re sixth in expected goals against. Offensively, they’re tremendous at getting good looks at goal, and third-best in expected goals for. However, they’ve only scored eight goals from open play. Their six set-piece goals are third-best in the league as well. They just find ways to get the ball in the net.
San Jose earned a hard-fought road point last weekend in Nashville after entering the match on a four-match losing streak. They’re the complete opposite of LAFC. They’re 5th in expected goals against, ahead of LAFC by the way, but are tied with Orlando for the most goals conceded in open play.
Both of these teams are equally bad when it comes to set-piece goals scored against, they’re the third and fourth-worst teams in the league.
LAFC has yet to win a match on the road this season and though San Jose is the designated home team, this match is being played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. This match could have been played anywhere in the world and I would still pick LAFC to roll against the spoon-contending Earthquakes in what should be another high-scoring affair.
PICK: LAFC DOUBLE CHANCE -280 plus OVER 2.5 goals -156, parlayed for +136 for 1 unit.
CF MONTREAL v INTER MIAMI CF
CF Montreal: MONEYLINE +175
Inter Miami CF: MONEYLINE +140
DRAW: MONEYLINE +240
I have been operating under the assumption that Miami was going to roll away with the 2024 Supporters Shield the minute Mr. Messi walked in and won the Leagues Cup last season. Even then, I proclaimed that they’d likely set the MLS mark for most points in a season. Lionel Messi missed a few weeks and now that he’s back, Miami’s rolling. They sit atop the league table averaging 1.9 points per match. They’re averaging 2.3 goals per game, and since Messi’s return, they’re averaging 3.3 goals per game. We’re over a third of the way through the season and the only thing I see stopping Miami is Father Time. Can they keep up this torrid pace?
These two teams faced off earlier this season down in Miami with Montreal coming away with the surprising three points. It was also a match in which Messi did not play. Now that he’s back and rolling, I expect them to win big at Stade Saputo this weekend.
PICK: Inter Miami DOUBLE CHANCE -240 plus Total Goals OVER 2.5 -146, parlayed for +156 for 1 unit.
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