When Chris Albright made Roman Celentano the #2 overall selection in the 2022 MLS SuperDraft, it represented a foundation for FC Cincinnati’s future success. Before Celentano, the Orange and Blue had some of the worst goalkeeping seasons in MLS history, making bad teams even worse. Making Celentano (and Alec Kann) cornerstones of the rebuild raised the floor for the Orange and Blue on the field and allowed precious international roster spots and salary cap resources to be allocated elsewhere.
Celentano’s career is undeniably on an upward trajectory. He signed a contract extension at the end of last year and earned his first call-up to the U.S. Men’s National Team this past January. Celentano is without a doubt the best goalkeeper to play for the Orange and Blue, but now that he’s no longer on a Generation Adidas contract and is a few years into his professional career, it’s worth taking stock of where he is relative to the rest of the league and to consider how much more he has to grow.
Shot-stopping
Goalkeeping data from Football Reference lends further credence to the narrative. Celentano has improved as a shot-stopper in each of his seasons in MLS per Opta’s post-shot expected goals model (PSxG).
For those unfamiliar, a post-shot expected goals model assigns additional variables like location on the goal to a traditional expected goals model to better reflect the quality of the shot on target. A xG model would assess two shots taken from the same location on the field as having the same chance of being scored whereas a PSxG model would assign a much higher value for a shot in the upper-90 of the goal as opposed to one right down the middle.
So far in 2024, Celentano’s shot-stopping (PSxG +/- per 90) is the best of his career so far while facing essentially the same quality of shots (PSxG/Shots on Target). Progression from one year to the next is certainly a good thing. But that’s not the whole story.
Celentano started 2024 as a truly elite shot-stopper in MLS, helping to propel FCC to the top of Major League Soccer’s defensive rankings. But after a strong start to the season, Celentano’s shot-stopping has taken a dip. Overall for the season, Celentano ranks 10th out of 21 goalkeepers who have played at least 10 90s in PSxG +/- per 90 minutes. Taking a closer look shows a precipitous drop-off after about the ten-match mark of the season.
Game-by-game statistics will always be noisy, but even trying to account for that a little bit with a four-game rolling average, Celentano’s shot-stopping went from being a huge plus to FCC’s defense to being a liability.
Distribution
FCC continues to play out the back in possession and Celentano looks more comfortable in possession. Out of 30 MLS goalkeepers with at least 1,000 minutes of game time in 2024, Celentano’s pass attempts rank seventh in American Soccer Analysis’ expected pass completion percentage with 77.8 percent. He has completed 78.6 percent of his passes, ever so slightly higher than the expected outcome.
The biggest reason is that he’s kicking the ball way up the field less often. Per FBref, Celentano “launched” (passes traveling more > 40 yards) just 30.9 percent of his goal kicks this season, compared to 70 percent in 2022 and 50.4 percent in 2023. For non-goal kicks, that number is 27.1 percent compared to 50.9 percent in 2022 and 41.9 percent in 2023. So Celentano is attempting and completing relatively easy passes while passing the ball shorter distances. Last season, Celentano attempted nearly four short passes (5-15 yards) and nearly seven medium passes (15-30 yards) per 90 minutes. This year, he’s attempting more than seven short passes and 10 medium passes per game.
Playing with the ball at his feet isn’t likely to ever be a major strength in Celentano’s game but, with FCC’s defenders, he’s been able to move the ball around the team’s defensive third effectively enough to help break through opposing pressure. Being able to more consistently break lines would be a nice-to-have but FCC’s center backs and wingbacks are comfortable enough on the ball to pick up the ball progression slack.
Looking Forward
Celentano has improved in every professional season he has played and he’s still just 23 years old, so it’d be premature to write that what we see now is Celentano’s final form. Ultimately, midway through the 2024 season, the Orange and Blue have an above-average MLS goalkeeper in Celentano. And we shouldn’t discount the potential for further development. His shot-stopping highlights are among the best in the league but hopefully, there’s more to come in terms of week-to-week consistency.
In the short term, FCC will be relying on Celentano to pick up a larger share of keeping the ball out of the net given Matt Miazga’s season-ending injury. Though new signing Chidobe Awaziem should provide additional defensive stability, having a goalkeeper operating at the peak of their ability for the end of the season and playoffs could be the difference between silverware and coming up short again.
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