Welcome to the 2024 MLS regular season FC Cincy fans! Now that there’s some actual soccer to discuss and debate, I’d like to take a closer look at another aspect quickly growing, not just here in Ohio, but throughout the country; MLS betting lines.
Each week, yours truly is going to look at matchups throughout Major League Soccer as well as the different gambling markets to see where we can get a leg up on the sportsbooks. I’ll likely take a look at two to three matchups from the weekend where I think there’s value in the market and offer up some analysis on why I’m betting the way I am. Yes, I’m going to be placing bets on these matchups each week so this little exercise will be a fun way to keep track of how I do all season.
Full disclaimer, I’m very new to the sports gambling world, having just started in 2023 when it finally became legal in Ohio. We’re not going to win every game, we’re not going to lose every game (man, I really hope not). There will be ups and downs as there are with any type of sport you are wagering on. The point of this is to learn a little about the world of sports gambling. So let’s have some fun and by the end of the season hope we’re up instead of down.
From an educational standpoint, you’re going to see some terms that you may not be familiar with. For starters, you’re going to see me telling you how many units I’m betting instead of a dollar amount. Why is this? Well, frankly, my gambling budget may not be as high as say Boston “Moneybags” Brazzell’s might be. Everyone’s unit is going to be a different size (insert any “That’s What She Said” meme here). So, telling you how many units I’m betting is a way of standardizing this for you. A unit is TYPICALLY one percent of your bankroll. For example, if you have a $250 bankroll, a $2.50 bet is what’s recommended.
Another disclaimer I’d like to offer is that the first few weeks of the season are going to be spent learning about who these teams are. Right now, we’re flying a bit blind, especially considering we’ve seen zero preseason games and have no game data. So if we get off to a sluggish start, don’t worry. Once we can analyze the data in a few weeks, we’ll have better betting insights.
If you want to partake and wager along with me, fantastic! If not, that’s ok too. Maybe you only want to bet on FCC. Each week I’ll be sure to include a breakdown of their matchup even though I may not personally bet on it.
ODDS: +100 means that a $100 bet will pay out $200.
NOTE: Odds listed below are subject to change.
FC CINCINNATI VS TORONTO FC
FC Cincinnati WIN: -275 (Draftkings, a $10 bet wins you a $13.63 payout)
DRAW: +400 (DraftKings, a $10 bet wins you a $50.00 payout)
Toronto FC WIN: +700 (FanDuel, Caesars a $10 bet wins you a $80 payout)
Need we say more here? Toronto FC is coming off an absolutely terrible season and, well, FCC is the reigning Supporters Shield champs. Toronto FC enters the season with a new coach in former Canada Men’s and Women’s National Team coach John Herdman. Herdman led Canada to a first-place finish in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying heading into Qatar 2022. However, this is his first foray into MLS, and let’s face it, Toronto FC’s roster is just not that good.
On the flip side, FCC is coming off a hard-fought win in its first-ever appearance in the CONCACAF Champions Cup on Thursday night. The team will have a late flight in from Jamaica and a short turnaround till kickoff on Sunday. They’ll be without 2023 MLS Defender of the Year Matt Miazga, who will be serving the final game of his suspension stemming from last season. The starting center backs may just be Miles Robinson, Ian Murphy and Kipp Keller. They’re also going to be without fan favorite Alvaro Barreal, who looks to be leaving the club on loan. One positive note though is DP striker Aaron Boupendza will be available and very fresh after not making the trip to Jamaica this week.
NOTE: Due to the lines being so high, and I do think Cincy’s going to win this game, I will pass on betting this one since the return will be so low.
AUSTIN FC vs MINNESOTA UNITED
Austin FC WIN: EVEN/+100 (Caesars, a $10 bet wins you a $20.00 payout)
DRAW: +280 (FanDuel, a $10 bet wins you a $38 payout)
Minnesota United WIN: +245 (DraftKings, a $10 bet wins you a $34.50 payout)
This matchup and these lines really jumped out at me when doing my research. It wasn’t that long ago that Austin FC nearly reached an MLS Cup final. Yes, they had a down year, and there are starting to be some question marks about the coaching staff.
However, Minnesota heads into this game without having a preseason with their rumored new coach, which as of now has still not been announced by Minnesota United. That cannot be good for a team heading into the first game of the season.
Austin stumbled out of the gate last year when we all thought they’d cruise to a win over expansion side St. Louis CITY FC in week one. Let’s hope they don’t do it again this year against Minnesota.
PICK: Austin FC +100 for one unit
DC UNITED vs NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION
DC United WIN: -105 (Caesars, DraftKings a $10 bet wins you a $19.52 payout)
DRAW: +270 (Caesars, a $10 bet wins you a $37 payout)
New England WIN: +270 (FanDuel, a $10 bet wins you a $37 payout)
At first glance, before looking at the odds, I thought to myself this should be an easy win for New England. DC United finished the 2023 season in 12th place in the East and New England still has some really talented pieces. Both teams are coming into the season with new coaches as well.
So I’m left here scratching my head as to why DC United is a favorite in this matchup. DC United did bring in some new attacking pieces, but taking a look at their preseason results, it’s hard to measure how good DC will be.
The same can be said for Caleb Porter and the Revs. They went winless this preseason. Does it mean anything? Probably not. Porter’s won two MLS Cups with two different clubs. It pains me to say that he kind of knows what he’s doing. Can the Revs get off to a good start on the road in the nation’s capital? I think so.
PICK: New England Revolution +270 for one unit.
St. Louis CITY SC vs REAL SALT LAKE
Saint Louis WIN: +115 (Caesars, a $10 bet wins you a $21.50 payout)
DRAW: +265 (DraftKings, a $10 bet wins you a $36.50 payout)
Real Salt Lake WIN: +225 (DraftKings, a $10 bet wins you a $32.50 payout)
I think St. Louis blew away our expectations a year ago. They got off to a heater to start 2023 and ultimately earned the West’s top seed. However, they flamed out hard in the postseason. They’ve also lost some pieces from last year’s roster. Will they return to form? Or will they be 2024’s Austin FC from a season ago?
When looking at this matchup, both teams beat each other a year ago and both teams won on the road. St. Louis with a 4-0 win at Rio Tinto (or whatever they call it these days) and RSL with a 3-1 in St. Louis.
RSL will be coming into this match after losing 2-0 in their season opener Wednesday night in Miami. That was Salt Lake’s first loss in a season opener since 2009. St. Louis also made their CONCACAF Champions Cup debut Tuesday night with a 2-1 win over Houston. However, one of those goals was an absolute gift. Both teams will have a short turnaround heading into Saturday night’s match. Give me the road team on Saturday.
PICK: Real Salt Lake +220 for one unit
Those three games will be my official plays for the weekend. As for some other matches I may also be wagering on, Houston vs Sporting KC piques my interest. I think I’m leaning on Sporting KC since Houston played midweek and didn’t look all that great, which is great for me since I thought they could be a sleeper team in 2024. We’ll keep track of how things go and, hopefully, we have a great first week of the 2024 MLS season! Good luck out there!
Disclaimer: The handicapping and odds information (both sports and entertainment) found on CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com is strictly for entertainment purposes. Furthermore, the unique odds shown in select news articles are also for the purposes of entertainment and are not available to be wagered on via CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com. We are not a sportsbook and do not take any wagers. We do not endorse illegal online gambling. Please check the online gambling regulations in your jurisdiction before placing any wagers with the betting sites advertised on CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com. CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com does not target any individuals under the age of 21 for the purposes of gambling. Using any of the information found at CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com to violate any law or statute is prohibited. CincinnatiSoccerTalk.com is not supported by any professional, college or university league, association, or team or endorsed by any Public Gambling Platform. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the Ohio Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-589-9966. It is available 24/7.
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