This league is something else. It’s almost May, and I can’t tell you which teams are good. Of course, this is exactly what MLS wants, so it’s also not a total shock. It makes it really difficult to handicap and pick games each week, though. I didn’t see FC Cincinnati and Austin FC going on the road and getting wins.
Meanwhile, the one pick we got right last week, the LA Galaxy, did their best to squander a 3-0 first-half lead and held on to a 4-3 despite playing with 10 men in the second half. Is the Galaxy good? They are at the top of the Western Conference, so I guess you can say that. They give up too many goals, which concerns me as we progress through the season.
So, who is good? Can Miami keep up this pace with its aging veterans? Is Vancouver good? They’re currently second in the West. They recently lost at home to the Galaxy but bounced back on the road in Seattle this weekend. The Crew’s prioritizing the CONCACAF Champions Cup. The Red Bulls knocked off FCC on the road and managed a draw this weekend at LAFC. Philly has more draws than wins in seven matches but has yet to lose. I just don’t know the answer to this question yet.
Weekend Results: 1-2, down 1.45 units
Year-to-Date: 6-15-2 down 11.5 units.
NOTE: Odds below subject to change
FC CINCINNATI v COLORADO RAPIDS
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE -140
Colorado Rapids: MONEYLINE +360
DRAW: MONEYLINE +280
I should have known better than to pick against Pat Noonan and FCC last weekend. I felt some vindication for about thirty seconds in the second half. Then Atlanta played a short corner to no one, and before you know it, the game was level. Another thirty seconds went by before DeAndre Yedlin followed that up with a peach of a ball (you see what I did there?) to Lucho Acosta, and bing, bang, boom, FCC walks out of Georgia with the three points.
There are still some offensive concerns for the Orange and Blue. I’m unsure what Corey Baird did to the soccer gods, but they have something on him now. Help appears to be on the way soon, though. Maybe there’s a light at the end of this low-scoring tunnel.
After a few weeks away from the Queen City, the Orange and Blue return home to take on an improved Colorado Rapids side. The Rapids currently sit fourth in the West and have only lost twice this season. They’ve beaten LAFC and drawn Miami. Chris Armas has done a great job early on in his short tenure in Denver. Though, offensively, the Rapids expected goals for in open play are one of the worst in the league, their expected goals for on set pieces is top 10 in Major League Soccer. Combined with the fact that they are top 10 in expected goals against, it helps explain the turnaround in their fortunes.
If FCC can limit Colorado’s set-piece opportunities, they should be able to walk out of TQL Stadium with a draw, at worst.
PICK: FC Cincinnati DOUBLE CHANCE -550 plus Both Teams to Score -132 parlayed for +105 for 1 unit.
AUSTIN FC v LA GALAXY
Austin FC: MONEYLINE +170
LA Galaxy: MONEYLINE +125
DRAW: MONEYLINE +290
Last weekend in Houston, Austin somehow managed to win against their in-state rivals with a goal in the game’s dying moments. Houston dominated that match statistically. They won in pretty much every category except for the score column. A smash and grab by Austin. Fair play to them.
Austin is still a train wreck. They give up the most expected goals against in open play in the league. Goalkeeper Brad Stuver averages 4.8 saves per match, the second-highest in the league. He’s fourth in goals prevented. The dude is standing on his head between the sticks.
LA Galaxy, the league’s second-best team in expected goals from open play, is coming to town. They’re also one of, if not the top, offensive teams in the league, averaging 2.3 goals per game. It does concern me that the Galaxy leaks a lot of goals for a top team (which is why I’m taking OVER 2.5 total goals), but their offensive firepower will be too much for Austin this weekend.
PICK: LA Galaxy DOUBLE CHANCE -230 plus OVER 2.5 goals -190, parlayed for +135 for 1 unit.
LAFC v PORTLAND TIMBERS
LAFC: MONEYLINE -220
Portland Timbers: MONEYLINE +550
DRAW: MONEYLINE +330
Despite the slow start to 2024, LAFC is still the second-bet favorite to win the MLS Cup this season. They currently sit seventh in the Western Conference and have lost games to Colorado, Salt Lake and Minnesota. Coincidentally, all three of those teams currently sit ahead of them in the table. All three of those losses have come on the road. They haven’t lost this season at home and are always incredibly tough to beat. They squeaked out a close win in El Trafico a few weekends ago. Since that match, they’ve followed it up with dual 2-2 draws, one in Portland and the other last weekend against the Red Bulls. They’re ninth in expected goals against and third in expected goals for.
The Timbers and head coach Phil Neville are still a work in progress. Only Austin FC has a worse expected goals against rate this season. They boast a decent attack and have scored the third most goals in the league, averaging two goals per game.
This has the potential to be an explosive match, and it’s an odd one because these two teams just met two weeks ago in Portland. I just think LAFC at home will be too much for the Timbers in what should be a goal fest.
PICK: LAFC DOUBLE CHANCE -800 plus Total Goals OVER 2.5 -178, parlayed for -134 for 1.34 units.
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