Last week, I got up off the canvas and bounced back with an even week. I felt very strongly that Columbus wouldn’t win in Salt Lake City. Their scoreless draw meant our bet was voided. Charlotte came away with a win in a high-scoring contest. We’re heading into Matchday 10, nearly a third of the season gone, and we’re still learning about these teams each week. Even though I’m down 10 units, there’s still plenty of time to dig out of this hole.
Weekend Results: 1-1-1, down 0.7 units
Year-to-Date: 5-13-2 down 10.1 units.
NOTE: Odds below subject to change
ATLANTA UNITED v FC CINCINNATI
Atlanta United: MONEYLINE +120
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE +200
DRAW: MONEYLINE +250
FC Cincinnati is in a serious funk at the moment. This team has spoiled the fans over the past couple of seasons. When I sat down to write this, I honestly couldn’t remember the last time the Orange and Blue had back-to-back losses in league play. That’s incredible, considering their rough start to MLS life. You have to go back to May 2022, when they lost to New England and Montreal. Yes, it’s easy to overreact to the last couple of weeks, but the issues have lingered since well before this sour patch. A team that was one of the most dynamic attacks in MLS just can’t piece it together in the final third of the pitch. Yet, Lucho Acosta still leads the league in Key Passes. Everything seems labored and clunky, not free-flowing and smooth like we’re used to seeing.
Pat Noonan has never lost three MLS regular season matches in a row in his short managerial career. Unfortunately, he heads to Atlanta this weekend, a place where the Orange and Blue have only won once inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. If there’s any silver lining, they did get their first-ever win in that building the last time they played there.
Atlanta is coming off a tough match at home, in which they blew a two-goal lead in the second half against Philly. It does appear that star striker and leading goal scorer Georgios Giakoumakis may return for the Five Stripes after missing the past few matches with a bone bruise. This team is much different with him in the attack.
I hate to do it. I hope that FCC proves me wrong.
PICK: Atlanta United MONEYLINE +120 for 1 unit
HOUSTON DYNAMO v AUSTIN FC
Houston Dynamo: MONEYLINE -145
Austin FC: MONEYLINE +380
DRAW: MONEYLINE +280
Don’t look now, but the Houston Dynamo are on a roll. They’re currently sitting third in the West, while Austin continues to sputter under the playoff line. Ben Olsen just signed a new extension. Life after D.C. United has been good for the Dynamo coach. He’s got them playing very well early on in 2024.
The same cannot be said for Josh Wolff. Wolff’s first two years in Austin were decent. They fell short of making an MLS Cup Final, and it’s been all downhill since. Austin currently sits 11th in the West and continues to leak goals; they’ve conceded the fourth-most in the conference. One thing to watch is Houston’s Hector Herrera, who may be forced to miss this weekend’s match due to injury. Regardless, Houston’s still the better team and should prevail despite his absence.
One crazy statistic is that both teams are dead last in the league in xG For in open play. Neither of them create good chances in front of goal. The only difference between them is that Houston also prevents chances, as they have the best xG Against in Major League Soccer. Austin is the worst, giving up the most good chances per match. The price is a bit juicy, but I’ll take Houston at home.
PICK: Houston Dynamo MONEYLINE -145 for 1.45 units
LA GALAXY v SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
LA Galaxy: MONEYLINE -195
San Jose Earthquakes: MONEYLINE +400
DRAW: MONEYLINE +370
It’s time to start stacking some wins at the MLS Wager Watch. It means we will have to start making plays with larger odds. It’s not sexy, but a win is a win. There’s almost zero chance the Galaxy won’t walk away from the California Clasico with the three points. They’re playing this match at home, and they’re big favorites. They lost a tough match against LAFC two weeks ago but bounced back with a massive 3-1 win on the road in Vancouver last weekend. Vancouver’s no slouch, either. They sit second in the West. The Galaxy have won five straight Clasico’s.
San Jose will be spending 2024 contending for the Wooden Spoon. They’re dead last in the West and have conceded the most goals in MLS. They’re averaging 2.5 goals conceded per game. Meanwhile, the Galaxy average scoring 2.1 goals per game. They’re also second in the league in xG For in Open Play.
I would not be shocked if LA wins this game by 3 or more.
PICK: LA Galaxy MONEYLINE -195 plus Total Goals OVER 2.5 -205, parlayed for +100 for 1 unit.
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