MLS Wager Watch – It Can Only Go Up From Here

MLS Wager Watch

MLS Wager Watch looks to the West this week in hopes for a bounceback after a rough Week 7 in MLS action.

Photo Credit: Brian -

What’s cooler than being cool? Ice cold. That’s what I am right now betting on MLS games the last two weeks. It’s always frustrating when that player for the Red Bulls comes into Cincy and does something to ruin our nights. You know what else ruined our night? Referees in LA. I don’t understand how they didn’t overturn that first half penalty. Who knows what might have happened the rest of the match but for me, it was never a penalty. That’s gambling I guess. We get back at it and hope for a big bounceback this weekend.

Weekend Results: 0-3, down 3 units

Year-to-Date: 4-12-1 down 9.4 units.

NOTE: Odds below subject to change


CF Montreal: MONEYLINE +145
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE +165

FC Cincinnati is coming off a tough loss against the New York Red Bulls. Disappointing considering they got off to such a great start by scoring after three minutes. The defense which had conceded just one goal in the run of play all season gave up two. They’re heading north to Quebec where they have not fared well in their young franchise history. After winning their first two games in Montreal, they’ve lost two and drawn one in their last three. In their 10 matchups, just three of those matches have been under 2.5 goals. In other words, there tends to be fireworks.

But these are two very different teams now. The FCC attack is non-existent at the moment. They’ve become a team reliant on their stellar defense and goalkeeping. Montreal currently sits 11th in the Eastern Conference standings and has scored more goals than Cincy. They’ve also conceded 13 goals in six matches and allow the 10th most expected goals. They’ve also played their first six matches on the road. Yes, this is their home opener.

There’s not much I like about this matchup, the odds aren’t favorable and Cincy’s offense isn’t scoring. I think I’m going to stay away from betting on this matchup.


Charlotte FC: MONEYLINE -160
Toronto FC: MONEYLINE +420

Last week I placed a bet on Charlotte to go into Foxborough and beat the Revs and they let me down. To be fair, I wasn’t betting for Charlotte so much as I was fading the Revs hard since they’re down on their current luck. This week, though, I really like Charlotte’s chances against Toronto. Charlotte’s playing at home, on turf, and we saw Cincy struggle there just a few weeks ago.

Remember early in the season when things were looking rosy in Toronto? John Herdman had his team balling out much to the surprise of many around the league. They won three of their first five matches. They’ve followed that up with a 3-1 home loss to Sporting KC and went to Vancouver and got smacked around 4-0 this past weekend. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne continues to be out for them as well.

These two teams faced off in Week 3, which was a 1-0 win for Toronto. I just think the mounting injuries and the downward trend for Toronto is too much here. I’m taking the home team and hope that they don’t disappoint me for a 2nd straight week.

PICK: Charlotte FC MONEYLINE -160 1.6 units


FC Dallas: MONEYLINE +195
Seattle Sounders: MONEYLINE +145

You’re probably wondering why the hell I’m picking a game involving the 12th and 13th-placed teams in the Western Conference. I like this game because Seattle’s a road favorite, something you don’t often see in the league. Plus, Seattle’s coming off a 5-0 drubbing of Montreal, surprisingly enough, their first win of the season.

Dallas is coming off back-to-back road games where they lost 2-1 to Austin and played to a scoreless draw in St. Louis. Dallas is middle of the pack when it comes to expected goals against with just over 6.61 xGA in open play. Over their last five, they’re 0-4-1 and trending downwards.

Not only that, but the moneyline odds for Seattle have gone down since this opened at +180 which means that the money’s been coming in on Seattle. I tend to agree with the bettors. Because the juice is so high on the double chance wager, I’m going to parlay this to increase our odds.

PICK: Seattle Sounders DOUBLE CHANCE (to WIN or DRAW) -260 plus Total Goals OVER 0.5 -1300, parlayed -170 for 1.7 units.


Real Salt Lake: MONEYLINE +115
Columbus Crew: MONEYLINE +200

It’s still early in the season but Real Salt Lake’s off to a great start to 2024. They’re currently sitting in third place in the Western Conference and boast a potent attack led by MLS MVP candidate Chicho Arango currently tied for the Golden Boot with six goals on the season. They’re also very tough to play at home in altitude. They also don’t give up a lot of scoring chances, as they are eighth in expected goals against.

The Columbus Crew are coming off a tough road trip to Mexico in the CCC where they played extra time and won in penalties to advance to the semifinals. They got home late on Tuesday night and will have a quick turnaround to head west to a place where they are winless in their last five visits. A team playing with less rest vs a team in good form playing at home with no travel. This smells very much like an RSL win.

PICK: Real Sale Lake TIE NO BET -156 for 1.56 units.

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