Wednesday’s match against Toronto FC represents a bit of a full circle moment for FC Cincinnati. When these two squads first met in March, a 2-0 home victory for the Orange and Blue, FCC was in the midst of a harsh roster transition. A meld of offseason roster drama, injuries, and new acquisitions led to a chaotic rotation of lineups that saw Pat Noonan go through new starting XIs with the same frequency Sergio Santos goes through new hairstyles.
Now that seems like a distant memory for FCC. That Toronto win kicked off a 7-2-1 run in the MLS, propelling FCC to the top of the Eastern Conference and second on the entire league table. Their latest win came Saturday, a 2-1 win over the returning Brandon Vazquez-led Austin FC. The new-look roster is gelling, the new acquisitions look like legitimate MLS game-changers, and the injury report—finally—is, for the most part, clear. Things are looking bright; now the question is, can FC Cincinnati keep that positive momentum going?
IMPERFECT NEAR-PERFECTION FOR FCC
The “form” column may be near-perfect for FC Cincinnati, but their in-game play has been far from flawless. They’re neither blowing past teams offensively (their 17 goals are 17th in the MLS), nor are they winning with the type of technically-sound, possession-based masterclass we’re used to seeing from past FCC teams (they’re 17th in the MLS in passing percentage). Instead, they’ve gritted out close wins through timely, clutch goals and superb goaltending from Roman Celentano.
FCC’s long-term success will hinge on their depth. Evander (seven goals in 10 MLS games) and Kevin Denkey (six goals in 11 MLS games) are providing the type of scoring the club expected from each of them. However, they’ve accounted for all but four of the club’s 17 goals this season. Dado Valenzuela (two), Yuya Kubo, and Sergio Santos are the only other FCC players who have found the back of the net this season. For comparison, the Vancouver Whitecaps, the only team ahead of FCC on the MLS table, have had 11 different players score a goal for them this season.
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING START FOR TORONTO FC
Five seasons removed from their last playoff appearance, Toronto FC are mired in another slow start to the season. They’re 2-6-4 and currently sit 13th in the Eastern Conference standings. Lack of scoring has been their biggest hindrance; their 10 goals in 10 games makes them the sixth-worst in the league. Their DP scoring duo, Fernando Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne, have just three goals between them (Bernadeschi has two, Insigne has one). The man tied with Bernardeschi in team scoring, young Canadian National Team prospect Deandre Kerr, has been out since March with an ankle injury and isn’t expected to return for another month.
The guy who could give FC Cincinnati headaches in this game is USMNT keeper Sean Johnson, who ranks sixth in the MLS in both saves and save percentage despite routinely taking a shelling from opposing offenses. Johnson is the type of goalkeeper who can keep his team in the game even on their worst days, giving Toronto an opportunity to steal games.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Despite not finding the scoresheet Saturday against Austin FC, Kévin Denkey was one of the game’s biggest contributors with three shots on target. A subpar game against NYCFC aside, Denkey has been on a roll when it comes to creating scoring chances. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to finish a few of them against a porous Toronto defense.
As mentioned above, Sean Johnson is Toronto’s game-changer. If he indeed gets the game into “steal” territory for Toronto, look for Bernardeschi to be the one to jump into “hero mode.” Despite his slow start to the season, he’s still the centerpiece of Toronto’s attack, and as we’ve seen from his lengthy career in Europe, he’s capable of creating prime chances at a moment’s notice.
WHAT TO EXPECT
Both teams are entering the match on short rest, which opens the possibility of fatigue-based mistakes and wonky decision-making, something we saw FCC fall victim to earlier this season when the CONCACAF Champions Cup created a scheduling log jam. A lack of chemistry with a new roster could have factored into the inconsistent play then. This time, with a looser schedule and more time to gel, FCC should be in a better position to keep things clean. If they can, they’ll have a shot at a solid road win. If not, or if Johnson shuts things down in goal, FCC will need to be wary of Toronto potentially stealing a win.
HOW TO WATCH
WHERE: BMO Field
WHEN: 7:30
WATCH: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+
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