March Madness is upon us! No, I’m not referring to the Men’s and Women’s College Basketball tournaments. I’m talking about Major League Soccer’s annual tradition of playing regular season games during FIFA international windows. This weekend, many teams around the league will be rolling out lineups with key pieces missing due to their commitment to national team duties. It’s 2024. I still don’t understand why the league continues this practice. It certainly makes choosing games to bet on this weekend a tad difficult. That’s ok, we’ll power through.
The MLS Wager Watch had its first winning weekend! I was shocked to see Toronto lose to NYCFC. Of all the wagers from the weekend, that was honestly the one I was the most confident about. Guess Toronto was due for one of those matches. We’ll take a 2-1 weekend as we slowly climb out of the early season hole.
Weekend Results: 2-1, up 1.068 units
Year-to-Date: 4-6-1 down 2.8 units.
NOTE: Odds below subject to change
FC CINCINNATI v NYCFC
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE -115
NYCFC: MONEYLINE +290
DRAW: MONEYLINE +250
FC Cincinnati escaped New England on Sunday with a 2-1 win. They managed to get some key guys some first-half rest after a late-night trip from Monterrey midweek. Fortunately, the Orange and Blue will only be missing one player due to the international window. Miles Robinson played 120 minutes for the USMNT Thursday night in the CONCACAF Nations League semifinal. Don’t like those extra minutes on his legs. Outside of Robinson and likely Obinna Nwobodo, everyone else should be available for selection this weekend for Pat Noonan.
NYCFC is coming off their first win of the season, a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Toronto FC. Toronto hadn’t conceded a goal until this weekend. They also spent the last 20 minutes of that match down a man after Keaton Parks was sent off after a VAR review for a nasty challenge and still held on for a victory. This weekend they’ll be without Parks who will serve his red-card suspension. Jovan Mijatovic, Mitja Ilenic and Monsef Bakrar will also each miss due to international duty.
Before 2023, FCC in its short history hadn’t yet beaten NYCFC. Last year they swept the regular season series and added a Lamar Hunt US Open Cup win on top of it. They outscored NYCFC 7-1 in those three matches. FCC’s finally had a mid-week off and they’re fortunate to not be hit by the break. I believe NYCFC still hasn’t gotten off the struggle bus. FCC finally breaks through at home and scores a couple of goals after having not done so in league play.
PICK: Total Goals OVER 2.5 -108 for 1.1 units
TORONTO FC v ATLANTA UNITED
Toronto FC: MONEYLINE +120
Atlanta United: MONEYLINE +190
DRAW: MONEYLINE +260
It figures that as soon as I write something positive about Toronto FC they revert to past performances. However, I still think they’re playing better than expected. They’re also getting crushed by injuries at the moment, missing starting goalkeeper Sean Johnson and recently acquired Richie Laryea who will be out three months as he recovers from hamstring surgery. And yet, they hadn’t conceded a goal until NYCFC’s Santi Rodriguez buried a free kick in the first half Saturday night. Playing in front of the home crowd this weekend may give them a boost, but it’s going to be a tall task for John Herdman’s banged-up group.
Which is why I’m quite stunned to see that Atlanta isn’t favored in this one. What do the books know that we don’t? After suffering an opening week loss to the Columbus Crew, Atlanta United has bounced back with a 4-1 win over the Revs and a 2-0 clean sheet against bitter rivals Orlando City. They’re averaging two goals a game and conceding an average of 0.7 per game. They’re also third in Major League Soccer averaging 6.0 shots on goal per match. I may even sprinkle half a unit on Giorgos Giakoumakis, who has the highest xG in the league so far this season, to score a goal on Saturday night.
PICK: Atlanta United DOUBLE CHANCE (to win or draw) -150 for 1.5 units
CHARLOTTE FC v COLUMBUS CREW
Charlotte FC: MONEYLINE +175
Columbus Crew: MONEYLINE +145
DRAW: MONEYLINE +230
Year three for Charlotte FC got off to a decent start with a win over NYCFC a cross-country trek to Vancouver where they battled to a 1-1 draw. The past two weeks have erased that early season momentum as they’ve lost in back-to-back weeks against Toronto and Nashville. Through four matches, they’re averaging nearly a goal scored and a goal conceded in those matches. This tells me that they’re not that far off despite sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference. A closer look at the numbers shows that they’re the third-worst team in expected goals for, in other words, they’re not creating many chances. They’re tied for sixth in expected goals against through four weeks. So it appears that, defensively, they seem to be pretty solid at the back. They are a bit banged up and have a couple of guys out on international duty.
Meanwhile up in Columbus, had it not been for a stoppage-time equalizer in Minnesota a few weeks ago, the Crew would be sitting atop the Eastern Conference standings. They’re currently averaging 2.5 points per game, you’d like to think that at some point they’ll slow down that torrid pace. This weekend they’ll be without starting midfielder Aidan Morris and starting goalkeeper Patrick Schulte due to international duty. The Crew still have longtime MLS veteran goalkeeper Evan Bush who is more than capable of doing a job in this league. But Morris and Schulte are two important pieces without a doubt. The Crew have only conceded once from open play so far through three matches. As much as it pains me to say this, despite missing two key starters, I still think they walk out of the other Queen City with a win.
PICK: Columbus Crew MONEYLINE (to win) at +145 for 1 unit.
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