MLS Wager Watch – Early Surprises Around the League

MLS Wager Watch

This week on MLS Wager Watch we look at Minnesota United and Toronto FC, two teams who have gotten off to surprising starts in 2024.

Photo Credit: Brian -

Thanks to Saturday night’s abandoned match in Philadelphia, the MLS Wager Watch came away slightly down for the week with a 1-1 weekend. As betting goes, we will take it.

FC Cincinnati has played two home matches in MLS regular season play so far this season and both have ended in scoreless draws. Outside of one CCC match against Cavalier, they’ve been held scoreless in three of four home matches. It’s not a great early-season trend for the Orange and Blue. However, what is a great early-season trend is the fact that they have only conceded one goal in MLS play, which came via the penalty spot in Chicago. It’s early and they’re facing a lot of matches in a short stretch. The offense will eventually get clicking.

Thanks to a stoppage time St Louis CITY SC goal in Austin, we’re in the win column for a second straight week. Never a doubt, right? Another week down also means more data to analyze as we get a clearer picture of who is who in Major League Soccer in 2024.

Weekend Results: 1-1, down 0.48 units

Year-to-Date: 2-5-1 down 3.9 units.

NOTE: Odds below subject to change


New England Revolution: MONEYLINE +110
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE +200

Let’s face it, FC Cincinnati’s offense is in a funk. No one seems to be on the same page or they’re missing easy chances that should be buried. I’m starting to feel for new attacker Corey Baird. He keeps getting in dangerous spots for FCC, but the end product just goes missing for him. I still don’t know how he didn’t score from inside the six against D.C. United over the weekend. His chance was worth 0.78 expected goals. Yikes. I know that a lot of FCC fans are starting to lose faith. However, let’s also keep in mind it’s early. I’d much rather Baird get in those positions where he’s got chances to score than offer us no scoring chances at all. You have to trust that Baird’s finishing boots will eventually come. This weekend might be the best cure for that.

I’ll raise my hand and say I was probably wrong about New England this year. They were smacked down over the weekend in Atlanta 4-1. In their three MLS matches, they’ve been outscored 8-2. They’re also dealing with a congested schedule with CCC play. But it’s been rough to watch early on in 2024.

In their last eight matchups, FC Cincinnati has one win, three losses and three draws against New England. FCC is also coming off a very late night in Monterey on Thursday where they were eliminated from CCC. New England will also be making a late-night return after their CCC match in Costa Rica where they advanced to the next round of the CCC. This match screams another draw for the Orange and Blue, but I like the odds I’m getting with FCc to win or draw, so I’m taking it. I also feel slightly obligated to take Cincy this weekend since I hit a Monterrey win and a Brandon Vazquez Anytime Goal Same Game Parlay on Thursday night.

PICK: FC Cincinnati DOUBLE CHANCE (to win or draw) -150 for 1.5 units


Toronto FC: MONEYLINE +380

It’s early days, but I did not see this coming from Toronto FC. They’re the only team in MLS to not concede a goal through the first three weeks of the season. They’ve also only scored twice. They’re just a scrappy team at the moment. John Herdman has come in and managed to get the Italian duo of Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi to buy in. They look like a shell of the Toronto FC teams from the past two seasons. One note, starting goalkeeper Sean Johnson as well as newly-acquired midfielder Richie Laryea are likely out due to leg injuries suffered in recent weeks.

I don’t know about you, but I sometimes find myself forgetting that NYCFC has won MLS Cup, and it wasn’t even that long ago. That club has completely gone downhill since winning. They can’t score and they can’t defend, which usually spells disaster. It’s also early, but the trend’s not looking upwards. They’ve scored once while conceding five times in three matches. Even watching their match over the weekend against Portland you thought maybe they had turned the corner after scoring early. How they’re the favorite to win this weekend is quite baffling if I’m honest.

If you look at their most recent ten matches though, these teams are dead even in terms of records, each having won four and lost four while drawing two. NYCFC has outscored Toronto 16-13 combined in those matches though. This game is in New York though which does concern me slightly, but I just can’t see NYCFC getting a result this weekend.

Unofficially, I’m also betting UNDER 2.5 goals between these two teams this weekend.

PICK: Toronto FC DOUBLE CHANCE (to win or draw) +110 for 1 unit.


Minnesota United FC: MONEYLINE +185
Seattle Sounders: MONEYLINE +130

Remember in Week 1 of the season when I wagered against Minnesota United because they didn’t have a coach throughout their whole preseason? Remember when I also wagered against them in Week 2 when they took on the Crew and scored a late equalizer to cancel out our wager? Well, I’m coming right back to the well. Seven points through three matches so far this season and what impresses me so much about the Loons is they are relentless and do not quit. There were times I felt like Minnesota outplayed the Crew had they been able to finish their chances. Then, over the weekend, they somehow conceded a goal to Orlando after just thirteen seconds. It didn’t phase the Loons. They conceded a goal late that allowed Orlando to level things up. But in stoppage time, a goal kick from Dane St. Clair found the head of a United teammate that was flicked on, springing Minnesota on a three-on-two attack to score and break the hearts of Orlando City. Minnesota and late drama, it’s becoming a thing.

I really don’t know what to make of LAFC. They opened the season with a tough 2-1 win over Seattle. They haven’t scored since. Yes, one of those games was in a blizzard in Utah. Over the weekend, though, they couldn’t get past Sporting KC goalkeeper Tim Melia. It was a back-and-forth match as both teams combined for 29 shots and had glorious chances to score.

Over their previous ten matches, half of the matches have ended in draws. LAFC holds a 3-2 edge in wins but has outscored Minnesota 16-14 as well. Minnesota has not beaten LAFC since 2019.

Something tells me LAFC is due to get back on track this week. However, Minnesota’s a home dog in this one. It’s always tough to bet against a home dog. They’re playing well and getting some fortunate breaks along the way.

PICK: Minnesota United DOUBLE CHANCE (to win or draw) at -188 for 2 units.

Those are my official plays for this weekend. Let’s hope that FCC can find those scoring boots in New England. Happy wagering everyone and bring home some winners!

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