We’re two weeks into the season and starting to learn more and more about teams around Major League Soccer. As we continue to progress through the next few weeks, the data starts to funnel in and we can make even better educated guesses each week.
With that said, if only the Columbus Crew could have defended a late 1-0 lead on Saturday afternoon, we could have had a 2-1 weekend. Instead, Minnesota leveled it at the death, causing our Tie No Bet wager to push. FC Cincinnati ended up getting us our first betting win of the season with its 2-1 win over the Fire.
If you stayed up late to watch the Sounders and Austin FC Saturday night, you came away from that match wondering how the Sounders did not score a goal. How did they manage to not come away with the three points? They outshot Austin 23-2, and had an expected goals of 1.4 v 0.1. I sat there just astounded at what I watched. Good result for Austin but I was expecting way more from Seattle.
Weekend Results: 1-1-1, down 0.42 units
Year-to-Date: 1-4-1 down 3.42 units.
NOTE: Odds below subject to change
FC CINCINNATI vs D.C. UNITED
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE -120
D.C. UNITED: MONEYLINE +290
DRAW: MONEYLINE +280
FCC came away with a 2-1 victory over a spirited Chicago Fire side on Saturday. The Orange and Blue have conceded just one goal in two games and that came from the penalty spot. Defensively, they’re doing a great job limiting chances from the opposing team.
The Orange and Blue are also coming off a tough hard-fought loss against Monterrey Thursday night in CCC play. They will get a couple of days of rest and no travel with both games being played at TQL this week.
League-leading goal scorer Christian Benteke is coming off a slight injury and may not feature for D.C. United. They’ve scored five goals in two games and stormed back from a 2-0 deficit on Saturday night in Portland to leave the Rose City with a point. I bet against D.C. in week one when they easily knocked off New England. Is D.C. for real? We’ll find out this weekend.
Even though FCC has now been shutout in back-to-back home fixtures, I can see the team coming away with a 2-1 win. The game lines are too juicy for me and since I think there is the potential for goals this weekend between these two sides, I’m going with an OVER play here.
PICK: Totals Goals OVER 2.5 -148 for 1.48 units.
AUSTIN FC v ST LOUIS CITY SC
Austin FC: MONEYLINE +120
St. Louis SC: MONEYLINE +200
DRAW: MONEYLINE +250
I mentioned earlier in this piece how dreadful Austin was on Saturday night in Seattle. They couldn’t keep possession, they hunkered in and tried to catch Seattle on the break and it just never happened for them. They couldn’t keep possession long enough to even hit them on the break. A glance at the stats shows that Austin had 44 percent possession and if I’m being honest, I was surprised by this number. Again, Austin only had TWO shots during this game. Two, only one of which was on frame. They also had zero corners in the match. Kudos to them, I guess, for getting a result in Seattle but that was just terrible to watch. For as poorly as they have played through these opening two matches, I’m very surprised Austin is a slight favorite in this matchup.
St. Louis got a win over the weekend against another team facing a tough start to 2024, a 2-0 win over NYCFC. Easier to do when your opponent finishes the match down a man too. Though the sending-off came late in the match, the Citizens were already down 2-0. NYCFC had more of the ball and completed more passes than St. Louis but still wound up on the losing side of things. They didn’t create much and only had one or two good chances in front of goal. Both goals came off New York turnovers and St. Louis did what they do best, punish you on the counter.
Which brings me to Saturday. A rematch of their 2023 MLS Season opener in Austin when St. Louis put the rest of the league on notice. Based on what I’ve seen through two weeks, neither team’s going to want the ball. I think both teams are going to sit back and defend and wait for the other to make a mistake and the team most likely to do that right now is Austin. I have a hard time seeing Austin getting a win despite being favored at home. There’s a slight chance that this match ends up in a draw too, which is why I’ll take St. Louis to win or draw on Saturday.
PICK: St. Louis CITY SC DOUBLE CHANCE (to Win or Draw the match) -155 for 1.55 units.
PHILADELPHIA UNION v SEATTLE SOUNDERS
Philadelphia Union: MONEYLINE +110
Seattle Sounders: MONEYLINE +250
DRAW: MONEYLINE +220
When MLS analysts saw this fixture come out, many likely thought that this could be a MLS Cup Final preview with both teams figuring to be in the mix come the end of the season. Both teams have come out of the gates sputtering a bit, though. Seattle was given a rough opening match on the road against LAFC, which they lost 2-1 and followed it up at home with a dominant 0-0 draw against Austin FC, a game they easily should have won. The news also got worse this week for the Sounders as their newest DP signing Pedro de la Vega is set to miss a couple of months with a hamstring injury he picked up during the match Saturday night.
Philly meanwhile opened their 2024 season on the road in Costa Rica with a 3-2 win over Saprissa in the CCC and have backed that win up with four straight draws in all competitions. They were fortunate to be gifted a goal on Saturday in their 1-1 draw with Sporting KC. They drew 0-0 this week in CCC play at home against Pachuca. We can give Philly a slight pass for their slow start as they head into this match having played three more matches than Seattle.
I understand that MLS’ two-conference setup means that many teams don’t face off regularly between the two conferences, but I was surprised to find that Philly and Seattle haven’t faced one another since before the pandemic (2019). In their previous ten matchups, Philly has four wins, three losses and three draws in the series. These games are usually low-scoring affairs as these teams have combined to go over 2.5 goals in a match in three of those matches.
Philly can’t seem to win or lose a match these days and Seattle’s traveling across the country, missing a DP creator and struggling to score. I’m going to make a play on the UNDER and hope these two teams continue to struggle.
PICK: Total Goals UNDER 2.5 -134 for 1.34 units.
We got our first MLS win of 2024 under our belt last week, let’s hope we can keep building and get out of this early deficit. Best of luck this weekend and bring home some winners!
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