The life of a gambler. You’re going to have ups and downs. I certainly didn’t want to start this weekly series down three units. However, I won’t let it deter me. We can turn it around and get back to even this weekend.
If I could go back and do last weekend over, I probably should have opted to go the “Tie No Bet” route since one of the matches ended in a draw. New England lost outright to DC, which after the early red card made it less likely they’d get a result. Austin lost outright to Minnesota who finally named their new coach this week. Josh Wolff’s seat’s got to be scorching now for the “Fighting Precourts.” We were looking good with Real Salt Lake who had a second-half lead at St. Louis but that match ended 1-1.
This week I’m going to take a closer look at the odds for wagers that I can make that won’t punish you for draws vs outright winning. In other words, if the match ends in a draw, the bet is voided and you are returned your wager. Keep in mind not every sportsbook offers this type of wager.
Year-to-Date: 0-3, down 3 units.
NOTE: Odds below subject to change
CHICAGO FIRE vs FC CINCINNATI
Chicago Fire: MONEYLINE +130
FC Cincinnati: MONEYLINE +185
DRAW: MONEYLINE +250
The Fire and Philly played a four-goal thriller last weekend with the Fire thinking they scored the winner in the 82nd minute only to give up a stoppage-time equalizer. It’s reminiscent of last year’s 3-3 thriller at Soldier Field between the Orange and Blue and Chicago. Goals in the 84th and 87th minute secured the draw for FCC. If you look at the history of these two teams dating back to 2017 when they first met in the US Open Cup, Cincinnati is 4-4-3 all-time against the Fire.
Having the midweek match would have concerned me for FC Cincinnati but Pat Noonan used Wednesday night to heavily rotate his lineup with the youngsters. Outside of a possible reported concussion substitution from Kipp Keller, FCC emerged from CCC play unscathed. The weather for this weekend on Lake Michigan looks beautiful for early March, with temperatures expected to be in the 50s by kickoff which is significantly different than years past.
During their ten matches in MLS play, FC Cincinnati has been held scoreless by the Fire only twice. It’s highly unlikely that FCC could go back-to-back weeks without scoring. Cincy OVER 1.5 goals (+142) is very tempting and I considered taking OVER 2.5 TOTAL GOALS (-114) in this one as well. This match is probably destined for a draw but I’m still going to take Cincy to get the win on the road over the Fire.
PICK: FC Cincinnati +116 (Tie No Bet) for one unit.
SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs AUSTIN FC
Seattle: MONEYLINE -175
Austin: FC MONEYLINE +440
DRAW: MONEYLINE +310
Is there any chance Austin FC goes to Seattle and gets a result this weekend? I’m having strong doubts about this. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought loss to LAFC this past weekend and you know they’re going to be ready to go for their home opener. That place is going to be rocking.
I considered taking the Tie No Bet route here but those odds are -440 for Seattle which is very juicy. Each team won on the road last season in this series. In the short amount of time Austin has been in the league, Seattle has three wins, two draws and just a single loss. I have a hard time seeing Austin getting win number two this weekend.
But based on the long odds, I’m going to make my wager elsewhere. In their six matchups, Seattle has averaged 1.3 goals per game against Austin. Add in the fact that Austin’s not in a good place at the moment and I like the odds I’m getting for Seattle to score over 1.5 goals at -158. Unofficially, I may even sprinkle in some Any Time Goal Scorer prop bets for Raul Ruidiaz (+100) and Jordan Morris (+145) for half a unit.
PICK: Seattle OVER 1.5 goals -158 for 1.58 units.
MINNESOTA UNITED vs COLUMBUS CREW
Minnesota: MONEYLINE +150
Columbus: MONEYLINE +145
DRAW: MONEYLINE +270
As much as it pains me to say this, the Crew are good. I’m comfortable enough in my own Orange and Blue skin to say this. With the attacking weapons they’ve got, they’re going to be in every game. They eeked out a 1-0 win over Atlanta United this past weekend. Now they’re going to head up to the great white north in what normally would be a frigid contest in early March, temperatures will be mildly pleasant Saturday afternoon with highs in the 60s. That’s incredibly lucky from the scheduling Gods.
Minnesota on the other hand went on the road last weekend and beat a New England team that I didn’t think they had a chance against. Now the Loons will be playing to impress the youngest head coach in Major League Soccer, Eric Ramsey, who takes the reigns after a couple of years assisting at Manchester United.
It’s a tough call here, but my gut is leaning towards a Crew win but would not be surprised by a draw. The last two times both of these teams have faced off have ended in draws with Minnesota advancing on penalties, last season in the Leagues Cup and the knockout phase of the 2020 MLS is Back COVID Cup. However, these teams are much different today and I like the Crew on the road.
PICK: Columbus Crew (TIE NO BET) -110 for 1.1 units.
Those are my official plays for this week. If you’re following along and placing wagers for yourself, let me know what you’re taking! You can follow me on Twitter (or X, or whatever it’s called these days) @nickseuberling. Let’s hope I can turn around that 0-3 start with a big weekend. Happy wagering and bring home some winners this weekend!
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