Last weekend, FC Cincinnati had a vigorous, one-goal win over the Columbus Crew in Match One of Round One’s Best-of-Three Series. It was a late winner from Kévin Denkey that would give them the 1-0 advantage in the series, preventing the much more nervy ending of a penalty shootout.
THE OPPOSITION
The Crew have struggled as of late, with just five triumphs in their last 15 matches. These woes in the home stretch of the season are what earned them a seventh-seed berth, an uncharacteristically low finish for this side under Wilfried Nancy.
They still have not abandoned their style. They kept 50% of possession and even looked more comfortable with the ball. Their fluid positional play did cause some headaches for Cincinnati’s defense. The only thing missing was end product, as they had just 3 shots on target that produced a sum total of 0.62 in expected goals.
This is a result of the surprising front three selected by Nancy that omitted their DP star in Daniel Gazdag. The new trio of Diego Rossi, Hugo Picard, and Lassi Lapalainen did not threaten against their heated rivals, with zero shots on target between them.
Still, the Crew will keep in mind that the historical record favors them. Out of seven derby matches played at their home ground, they have won four, drawn twice, and lost only once. They know how to make the most out of home-field advantage in these moments of pressure.
To avoid elimination, they must focus on finishing. Whether or not that means starting Gazdag and even Jacen Russell-Rowe remains to be seen. One thing is clear: all of that possession, positional play, and home-field advantage means nothing if it does not lead them to playoff goals.
THE ORANGE & BLUE
The Orange and Blue came into Saturday’s derby with an intensity that had hardly been seen this season. Instead of inviting the pressure and using it to create counter chances, they went at the opposition’s defense. That generated 4 shots on target alone in the first half, compared to a single one from Columbus.
This strategy would reap benefits. Even as Columbus grew into the match, doing much of the build-up play and creating intricate passing combos, they could still not overcome the onslaught of attacking opportunities that Denkey, Brenner, and Evander provided with the support of Ender Echenique and Yuya Kubo.
The Orange and Blue will keep in mind that their away record favors them. In the past two seasons, they have been arguably the best team in MLS for road matches. Their record of 11-2-4 on the road in 2025 was the second highest in the league, just behind West Conference leaders San Diego FC.
Still, it must be remembered that Nancy’s Crew are never truly eliminated until the final whistle. He has already made three finals in his three seasons of being tenured, only losing one. Out of seven must-win matches, they have won thrice. Cincinnati must be nothing less than fully prepared to overcome a team that is this proactive in knockout matches.
That means overcoming their history in knockout matches; they have yet to make it to a cup final under Noonan, or in club history. They did go as far as the Eastern Conference Final and the U.S. Open Cup Semi-Final in 2023. But since then, they have not advanced beyond the Round of 16 in any cup.
A clinch for the Orange and Blue would exorcise not just their derby ghosts, but their knockout ones too. And that would give motivation for the rest of the gauntlet that they would face in the path to the MLS Cup Final.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Daniel Gazdag is the Crew’s player to watch. In his nine playoff appearances, he has four goals to his name. After an unexpected start on the bench, he will be eager to prove himself as the superstar that he was signed to be. There is no better occasion than this one.
Nick Hagglund is Cincinnati’s player to watch. He is coming off of winning the Comeback Player of the Year for putting in immense performances at defense. A win against the team up north—who will attempt to be on the front foot—is going to require just that. That is not to mention his veteran presence in matches like this.
WHAT TO EXPECT
To the surprise of no one, physicality was a theme of Match One. There were 21 fouls shared between both sides, 4 of which warranted a yellow card.
That is to say, you can expect this match to also live up to the occasion. Each foul will be harder, each play will mean more. Cincinnati is attempting to exorcise their ghosts, while Columbus is trying to force Match Three.
A decisive Match Two—a consecutive Hell is Real for the first time in its history—awaits both sides. It is yet another chapter of this derby set in the playoffs. Who will carve their name in the fire and brimstone?
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