FC Cincinnati have done well to recover form with wins in their past four matches. The next step towards reclaiming the Supporters’ Shield will be to figure out their in-state rivals at home again.
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew resume their white-hot “Hell Is Real” rivalry Saturday at TQL Stadium. Both teams survived winless droughts in May after their last matchup, a 1-1 draw at Lower.com Field two months ago. Both also went through their interrupted June schedule undefeated, leading up to this pivotal encounter.
While Cincinnati is undefeated against the Crew in the last three matchups, beating Columbus at home is a different matter. The Orange & Blue have won only once in five matches at TQL against Columbus, the lone victory in May 2023.
The Bad Guys (Columbus)
The Crew powered through June unscathed, beating Vancouver, Atlanta, and Philadelphia in a three-match home span. Their last match was a 1-1 draw at Seattle, the late red card on the Sounders not affecting the outcome.
Despite the away draw, Columbus has not won on the road since a 2-1 victory at St. Louis in April. The Crew have drawn three times and lost twice in their last five away matches, including a 5-1 drubbing at Miami.
With a sudden offensive facelift in the offseason, Columbus is a little behind their 2024 scoring pace. In the span of a month, Columbus lost Cucho Hernandez, Alexandru Matan, and Christian Ramirez to transfers and free agency. The three forwards alone accounted for 43% of the offense (31 out of 72 total goals) in 2024.
While the output has decreased, Columbus still has a 12-match streak in which they have scored at least one goal. Forward Diego Rossi has picked up the slack, scoring 10 goals and three assists in 20 matches. Jacen Russell-Rowe has taken the striker role, scoring seven goals for head coach Wilfried Nancy.
The Crew bolstered the offense by picking up forward Ibrahim Aliyu from Houston and midfielder Daniel Gazdag from Philadelphia. However, the two have combined for only two goals and two assists since joining the team in May.
While the defense has held firm without center back Rudy Camacho (knee), the team could be without goalkeeper Patrick Schulte, who is working through an abdominal injury.
The Good Guys (Cincinnati)
Evident through their low goal differential (+6), the Cincinnati offense is also not yet as advertised. Much like Columbus, the Orange & Blue also has a 10-match scoring streak since a 1-0 road loss to NYCFC.
Unsurprisingly, the offense has run through Evander and Kevin Denkey. The two offseason purchases have scored 24 of the team’s 33 total goals (72%), including 12 of the last 18. The offense has been strong enough to reach first place in the East, scoring first in the last four matches.
Cincinnati will be missing starting defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo and likely midfielder Yuya Kubo. However, the defending line should be back to better form, as Miles Robinson will return from USMNT duties to join Matt Miazga. Teenage Hadebe, Alvas Powell, or Lukas Engel could fill out the line.
Players to Watch
Max Arfsten (Columbus – LWB) — Robinson won’t be the only dynamic player returning to their team after this Gold Cup spell. USMNT head coach Mauricio Pochettino leaned heavily on Arfsten at left wingback, and it produced unexpected dividends. The 24-year-old defender scored a goal and three assists in five starts for the United States. This season, Arfsten has three goals and three assists and has started 16 matches for Nancy before his international duty.
Matt Miazga (Cincinnati – CB) — While Robinson’s return will be immense, Miazga’s presence has been a factor in Cincinnati coming away with a win or draw. Since his first match in August 2022, Miazga has missed three of the seven matchups against Columbus due to injury or suspension. In the matches Miazga missed, Cincinnati has never won (0-2-1), but in those he played? The team has won twice and drawn twice, and the center back has scored for Cincinnati in the rivalry. Needless to say, Miazga playing Saturday is an absolute MUST.
What to Expect
For both teams, it should be “all hands on deck”. A loss will be a massive stumbling block for aspirations of a home advantage in the playoffs. Columbus has historically had the advantage against Cincinnati in the rivalry, winning seven of the 17 matchups. However, things have been a bit closer since the return after the 2020 season, with Columbus winning four times and Cincinnati twice over the last ten matches.
Expect Columbus to possess the ball through midfielders Darlington Nagbe and Dylan Chambost. Columbus had less than 50% of the possession in only two matches this season—a draw in San Diego and the aforementioned loss at Miami. The Crew have not trailed in ball possession against Cincinnati since 2019 and have taken more shots in every game since 2022.
The offense is expected to pass through Rossi and Russell-Rowe with Gazdag playing the central midfielder role, but they could be struggling for offense if Aliyu and AZ Jackson cannot come off the bench to finish.
While Cincinnati still relies on one-goal surpluses to win matches, the team has done well to jump into a lead. The Orange & Blue have scored first in eight out of their last 10 matches, and each of those opening goals have been in the first half. In the eight derby matches since Pat Noonan’s arrival as head coach in 2022, Cincinnati have scored first in five of them. However, in the three matches they did not score first, Cincinnati did not score at all.
If this rivalry is to remain hot and not one-sided, Noonan will have to search for offense through means other than their go-to players.
Expected Lineups
FC Cincinnati (5-3-2): Roman Celentano (GK); DeAndre Yedlin, Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga, Lukas Engel, Luca Orellano; Tah Brian Anunga, Evander, Pavel Bucha; Gerardo Valenzuela, Kevin Denkey.
Columbus Crew (3-4-1-2): Evan Bush (GK); Steven Moreira, Sean Zawadski, Evgen Cheberko; Mo Farsi, Dylan Chambost, Darlington Nagbe, Max Arfsten; Daniel Gazdag; Diego Rossi, Jacen Russell-Rowe.
MATCH INFO
WHERE: TQL Stadium
WHEN: 7:30 PM
WEATHER: 92°F
WATCH: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+
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