Hitting the halfway point of the season and a pause in the action for the international break, our staff has been afforded a moment to reflect on where FC Cincinnati currently stands. We offered ourselves an opportunity to evaluate our preseason predictions and determine if we would ‘buy or sell’ those forecasts for the remainder of the season.
Sell | Cliff Adams – Preseason: 2nd | Midpoint: 3rd
- I don’t see any cupcake teams, but would put Philly, Chicago, and DC United out of playoff contention this year in our conference.
- I have us finishing in the top three in the Eastern Conference, in the high 60s in points, with the Supporter’s Shield a possibility.
- If we post above 20 points in those (March and April) competitions, our remaining season becomes somewhat protected from injuries and callups.
- The wings’ ability to progress and cross
- Our ability to get out of the backfield and press the offense
- Giveaways by Evander and in the opposing third in general
- Number of connected passes from the back to the final third
Maybe the guys need to watch Hoosiers!
Sell | Jacob Holton – Preseason: 2nd | Midpoint: 4th
Way back in the dead of winter I had high hopes for FC Cincinnati this season. I picked them to finish second in the Eastern conference and lift the MLS Cup. That prediction is not looking to hot right now. A leaky backline that has been battling injuries all season long, and an attack that is ok, but not the juggernaut that I thought it might be. There is the unknown of the summer transfer window on the horizon, but without knowing what that will bring second place in the east feels like a stretch.
There have been some highs through the first half of the season. A five match winning streak that stretch from the end of march till the end of April. Resilient performances against DC United at their place, a grueling Hell is Real in Columbus, and beating Austin in their first trip to TQL stadium. There have also been some rough nights for the Orange and Blue. Philadelphia beating down FCC 4-1 in the beginning of March, a bad loss 2-0 at Charlotte, blown away by Atlanta 4-2, as well as the botched 2-0 lead against Dallas that ended 3-3, and a 2-1 loss at home to DC United to cap off a nightmare three match stretch without a win.
With all the data out there, plus how the team look while watching the match it’s only just to change my prediction from the pre season. I’ll say FCC end up fourth in the east. They will still have enough talent to finish high in the east, but as things stand they don’t look like a real contender for a supporters shield. The club might look to add to the squad to shake things up and change the vibes in the summer window to kick start things in the right direction. I want to hold this club to high standards, so MLS Cup or bust is still my prediction, and hopefully the club is much stronger in the second half of the season.
Buy | Rupesh Sharma – Preseason: Top 4 | Midpoint: Top 4
Before the season started, my hope was that the squad would finish in the Top four of the Eastern Conference. Even with the club fulfilling this hope through the first 17 games, I have been underwhelmed. The offense has been mostly disjointed and the last few matched the defense has started to go missing.
I think the club will make the playoffs, but with the quality of opposition that is coming up on the schedule, I think holding on to a top 4 spot will be tough, but the club can do it. I feel like making the Eastern Conference Final would be an accomplishment.
Buy | Jason Ashcraft – Preseason: 3rd | Midpoint: 3rd
Sell | Gracin Galbreath – Preseason: 1st | Midpoint: 4th
My prediction was that I expected FC Cincinnati to win the Supporters’ Shield, make a deep run in the playoffs, and get nominated for a few individual accolades. What am I going to do with this prediction? Sell, sell, sell.
We have learned quite a bit about this team in the almost half season that they have played together. They are winners by slim margins, carried by the individual brilliance of Denkey or Evander. But what they aren’t is a cohesive unit, let alone a team that looks capable of winning any silverware. They simply look too discombobulated—the stats back this up, not just the eyes. And I don’t expect them to find a solution that will allow them to be any more successful than they were in 2024, including transfers.
I am not going to be too harsh with my new predictions. Noonan is one of the league’s most winningest coaches with top talent at his disposal. Although it appears that there are too many discrepancies for them to be a trophy-winning team, they still are very much capable of being near the top of the league with some respectable runs in tournaments. I can see them finishing 4th in the East, semi-finals in the Leagues Cup. But without trophies or accolades.
Sell | Josh Dye – Preseason: 2nd | Midpoint: 4th
My preseason prediction was pretty succinct: this team has the roster that can and will win MLS Cup. The good news is that goal is still very much on the table. The bad(?) news is this team is still very much a work in progress halfway through the season, despite sitting 2nd in the East and 4th in the Supporter’s Shield standings.
Evander and Kevin Denkey have been as advertised, accounting for 22 of the team’s 41 goal contributions. But Luca Orellano has not taken the next step (0 goals, 2 assists. Not great, Bob!) and no one has quite elevated to the role of the 3rd Hydra head in the attack. This hits on another point made in my preseason predictor: the depth on the team is still an issue and has only been made more dire with Nick Hagglund being out for the forseeable future and nagging injuries (Yuya Kubo and Matt Miazga) still hampering players. Chris Albright has his work cut out for him, as this team needs multiple pieces but doesn’t (currently) have the budget for anything major.
All of this is circles back to the last big piece from my preseason predictor that is still very relevant: the pressure is on Pat Noonan and his staff the rest of the season to get this figured out. Every pundit (or skeptical fan) will tell you that the underlying numbers for this team are BAD and not the Michael-Jackson-cool kind. Noonan has suggested as much in his many press conferences and the eye test backs that. Things are just flat out not clicking with this team. Formation or philosophy or messaging or pregame dance music. SOMETHING needs changing. And just what changes are or aren’t made will very likely determine the fate of this season.
I may be on an island, but I don’t care about the Supporter’s Shield. So I don’t really care about needing to figure it out RIGHT NOW. 17 regular season games (plus whatever you get out of League’s Cup) is still a lot of time to make adjustments and get back on course. I’m not going to ignore the issues. If things go south and there is another early flame out of the playoffs or, dare I say, missing the playoffs, than I am more than comfortable having the conversation of maybe moving on from Pat Noonan. But for now, I’m sticking to my guns and betting on Noonan to get more out of this group. I’ll lower my standing a few notches and say they finish 4th in the East, but we see a run similar to our northern rivals in 2023 and end up as MLS Cup champions.
Sell | James Odin – Preseason: 1st | Midpoint: 5th
Let me jump right to it. My initial prediction was for FC Cincinnati to be top of the East, 2nd in the league, and make a run for the cup. Now? I’m not too sure. Hell, I wouldn’t even call it sure. Vibes? Down. Performance? Meh for a 2nd place team in the east. Why? Well, that depends on who you ask.
The confidence in this team is dwindling as we continue to underperform against bottom-table teams, have inconsistent (and varying) wingers, and have a SEVERE lack of balance. The offense or defense have been a bright spot, but never at the same time.
Do I think things will change? I can’t say yes. The team has had plenty of time to “gel”, and yet, all plans seem to whither and fold as the team continues to underperform preseason expectations. Yes, they may be second place in the East, but underlying numbers say otherwise. And those watching? Well, the game footage speaks for itself. Until this team finds a sense of balance, can start playing more effectively TOGETHER, and bring back that gritty, tenacious team that made a run in 2023, I just don’t see it anymore. Instead, I see a team that repeats last year’s unfortunate playoff exit.
Buy | Jose Guerra – Preseason: 4th | Midpoint: 4th
- Golden Boot – Kévin Denkey
- Comeback Player of the Year – Matt Miazga
- MLS Best XI – Luca Orellano
- Let’s start at the front door. Roman Celentano seems to have recovered his strong shot stopping ability. He has again kept the team in games that could have been lost. It would enhance his performance if he could improve his game distribution and better command the backline but that may come later.
- The backline no longer looks elite. With Matt Miazga still not 100% match fit, Nick Hagglund absent through at least the end of July, Gilberto Flores and Lucas Engel having inconsistent performances, and Miles Robinson named to the USMNT Gold Cup roster which will force him to miss anywhere between one to four games, Pat Noonan will have his hands full trying to put together a backline that stops the current bleeding.
- The midfield has been inconsistent at best. As with last year, Noonan has had to rotate in this line either because of injuries or a heavy schedule. Obi Nwobodo seemed to have regained his form from 2023 but he has also been injured so that has reduced his ability to impact on a consistent basis. Brian Anunga has been solid but there is little progression from him. Pavel Bucha has been a revelation. He has performed consistently well, defends well, creates opportunities, and works hard on the pitch. But the overall midfield has had games where they either didn’t stop the opposition or didn’t create many plays for scoring opportunities, sometimes leaving large gaps through which opposing teams have created clear scoring opportunities that have resulted in scores that either defeated or tied FCC in games that should have been won.
- At the front we have here very good players in Evander, Kevin Denkey, and Orellano. The fact that between Evander and Denkey they have scored 17 goals shows the potential firepower. But they have not gelled as a unit and Orellano is not performing at last year’s level.
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