On Saturday, FC Cincinnati fell in a disappointing defeat to New York City FC in the second leg of the Round One Best-of-3 series. They will return home to TQL Stadium for the decisive leg of the series.
THE OPPOSITION
NYCFC looked dominant in the last leg. They had more possession, shots, passes, pass accuracy, and less fouls. They looked like a team that could make a deep run in these playoffs.
Their defense was immense. The double pivot of Keaton Parks and James Sands worked very well and the attacking trio of Hannes Wolf, Santi Rodriguez, and Alonso Martinez continually put FCC’s defense in misery.
If the Pigeons can replicate such a performance tomorrow, they’ll be very hard to overcome. But much like their opponent, they’ve been inconsistent over the course of the season, underperforming at times.
Away from home, they’ve been dismal. They have a 4-5-9 record, winning just four out of those 18 matches. Since the Leagues Cup break, they’ve won just one away match. Those are statistics that aren’t in their favor.
If the Pigeons want to perform in a similar manner as this last match, they must overcome their away form and their inconsistency.
Of note: Starting RB Tayvon Gray will return from red-card suspension.
THE ORANGE & BLUE
The Orange & Blue’s last match of this series was a 3-1 loss suffered at Citi Park. Despite maintaining momentum at the start of the match, they conceded an Alonso Martinez goal. The lead was doubled just 18 minutes later. The entirety of the second half was spent looking for a comeback. But a penalty in the last minute of the game sealed it for the Pigeons.
A performance like that has happened many times this season for FCC. It is disappointing, but it is the reality that this season has made them face. Their problem with being inconsistent isn’t solved.
The Orange & Blue have played in six must-win matches this season. They are 3-3. Their three losses came in both legs against CF Monterrey in the Round-of-16 of the Concacaf Champions Cup and against the Philadelphia Union in the one-legged quarterfinal of the Leagues Cup.
Most of those losses occurred at home, as well. In last season’s shield-winning campaign, TQL was a fortress. But this season, their home form has been shaky. Their record there is 8-7-3. They’ve only won two in a row at home twice.
For the Orange & Blue to advance, they must learn to find some sort of consistency. They have yet to do that. It will take a performance that can prove them to be worthy contenders.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Matt Freese is NYCFC’s player to watch. Across both legs, he has made 10 saves. He was easily one of the best goalkeepers in the league this season—that prowess will be a deciding factor in this match.
Luca Orellano is Cincinnati’s player to watch. In these playoffs, Noonan has played him as a striker alongside Kubo. He has excelled in that role, scoring 1 goal already, creating 4 chances, and completing 9 dribbles.
WHAT TO EXPECT
This year’s playoffs have been riddled with upsets. Columbus was swept by the Red Bulls, LAFC was pummeled by Vancouver in their second leg, and Atlanta forced Miami to a decisive leg. The lesson? One cannot expect any result in the postseason.
The Orange & Blue have already lost a playoff match. They’ve pulled off one really good performance, and one really bad one. It can’t truly be expected how they will look in this match. One can only hope.
But what one can expect is a match where both sides are fighting for their seasons. Whoever loses will be eliminated and their season will end and whoever wins will host an Eastern Conference semi-final match.
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